Related papers: A Surrogate Endpoint Based Provisional Approval Ca…

We present a sample path dependent measure of causal influence between two time series. The proposed measure is a random variable whose expected sum is the directed information. A realization of the proposed measure may be used to identify…

Investigators often evaluate treatment effects by considering settings in which all individuals are assigned a treatment of interest, assuming that an unlimited number of treatment units are available. However, many real-life treatments are…

Accurate prediction of outcomes is crucial for clinical decision-making and personalized patient care. Supervised machine learning algorithms, which are commonly used for outcome prediction in the medical domain, optimize for predictive…

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) can be used to generate guarantees on treatment effects. However, RCTs often spend unnecessary resources exploring sub-optimal treatments, which can reduce the power of treatment guarantees. To address…

Proximal causal inference provides a framework for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging outcome and treatment proxies. Identification in this framework relies on the existence…

In the quest to make defensible causal claims from observational data, it is sometimes possible to leverage information from "placebo treatments" and "placebo outcomes". Existing approaches employing such information focus largely on point…

Predictive biomarkers are playing an essential role in precision medicine. Identifying an optimal cutoff to select patient subsets with greater benefit from treatment is critical and more challenging for predictive biomarkers measured with…

This paper introduces a novel two-stage machine learning-based surrogate modeling framework to address inverse problems in scientific and engineering fields. In the first stage of the proposed framework, a machine learning model termed the…

This paper shows how to use a randomized saturation experimental design to identify and estimate causal effects in the presence of spillovers--one person's treatment may affect another's outcome--and one-sided non-compliance--subjects can…

Evaluating causal treatment effects in observational studies requires addressing confounding. While the back-door criterion enables identification through adjustment for observed covariates, it fails in the presence of unmeasured…

While sample sizes in randomized clinical trials are large enough to estimate the average treatment effect well, they are often insufficient for estimation of treatment-covariate interactions critical to studying data-driven precision…

In biomedical studies, estimating drug effects on chronic diseases requires a long follow-up period, which is difficult to meet in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). The use of a short-term surrogate to replace the long-term outcome for…

We study inference on the long-term causal effect of a continual exposure to a novel intervention, which we term a long-term treatment, based on an experiment involving only short-term observations. Key examples include the long-term health…

Motivated by a study about prompt coronary angiography in myocardial infarction, we propose a method to estimate the causal effect of a treatment in two-arm experimental studies with possible non-compliance in both treatment and control…

We consider the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in a semi-supervised learning setting, where a very small proportion of the entire set of observations are labeled with the true outcome but features predictive of the…

For the purpose of causal inference we employ a stochastic model of the data generating process, utilizing individual propensity probabilities for the treatment, and also individual and counterfactual prognosis probabilities for the…

Numerous algorithms have been proposed for detecting anomalies (outliers, novelties) in an unsupervised manner. Unfortunately, it is not trivial, in general, to understand why a given sample (record) is labelled as an anomaly and thus…

Recent research in causal inference has made important progress in addressing challenges to the external validity of trial findings. Such methods weight trial participant data to more closely resemble the distribution of effect-modifying…

For randomized clinical trials where a single, primary, binary endpoint would require unfeasibly large sample sizes, composite endpoints are widely chosen as the primary endpoint. Despite being commonly used, composite endpoints entail…

In this paper, we propose a novel approach (SAPEO) to support the survival selection process in multi-objective evolutionary algorithms with surrogate models - it dynamically chooses individuals to evaluate exactly based on the model…