Related papers: Estimation of tail risk measures in finance: Appro…
Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme…
We introduce a method to estimate simultaneously the tail and the threshold parameters of an extreme value regression model. This standard model finds its use in finance to assess the effect of market variables on extreme loss distributions…
Extreme values and the tail behavior of probability distributions are essential for quantifying and mitigating risk in complex systems of all kinds. In multivariate settings, accounting for correlations is crucial. Although extreme value…
Heavy-tailed probability distributions are extremely useful and play a crucial role in modeling different types of financial data sets. This study presents a two-pronged methodology. First, a mixture probability distribution is created by…
In this paper, we discuss the application of extreme value theory in the context of stationary $\beta$-mixing sequences that belong to the Fr\'echet domain of attraction. In particular, we propose a methodology to construct bias-corrected…
Modeling heterogeneity on heavy-tailed distributions under a regression framework is challenging, and classical statistical methodologies usually place conditions on the distribution models to facilitate the learning procedure. However,…
The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…
Many random phenomena, including life-testing and environmental data, show positive values and excess zeros, which pose modeling challenges. In life testing, immediate failures result in zero lifetimes, often due to defects or poor quality,…
For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…
Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of…
The notion of expectiles, originally introduced in the context of testing for homoscedasticity and conditional symmetry of the error distribution in linear regression, induces a law-invariant, coherent and elicitable risk measure that has…
In extreme value inference it is a fundamental problem how the target value is required to be extreme by the extreme value theory. In iid settings this study both theoretically and numerically compares tail estimators, which are based on…
The extreme value theory is very popular in applied sciences including Finance, economics, hydrology and many other disciplines. In univariate extreme value theory, we model the data by a suitable distribution from the general max-domain of…
There are various metrics for financial risk, such as value at risk (VaR), expected shortfall, expected/unexpected loss, etc. When estimating these metrics, it was very common to assume Gaussian distribution for the asset returns, which may…
Generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) processes are widely used for modelling features commonly found in observed financial returns. The extremal properties of these processes are of considerable interest for…
We propose a novel probabilistic model to facilitate the learning of multivariate tail dependence of multiple financial assets. Our method allows one to construct from known random vectors, e.g., standard normal, sophisticated joint…
This paper applies the Extreme-Value (EV) Generalised Pareto distribution to the extreme tails of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses tail estimators from these…
Expected risk minimization (ERM) is at the core of many machine learning systems. This means that the risk inherent in a loss distribution is summarized using a single number - its average. In this paper, we propose a general approach to…
This paper develops a Bayesian framework for the realized exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (realized EGARCH) model, which can incorporate multiple realized volatility measures for the modelling of a…
This paper deals with the extreme value analysis for the triangular arrays, which appear when some parameters of the mixture model vary as the number of observations grow. When the mixing parameter is small, it is natural to associate one…