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We use decision theory to confront uncertainty that is sufficiently broad to incorporate "models as approximations." We presume the existence of a featured collection of what we call "structured models" that have explicit substantive…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-08-22 Simone Cerreia-Vioglio , Lars Peter Hansen , Fabio Maccheroni , Massimo Marinacci

Perturbation-based explanations are widely utilized to enhance the transparency of modern machine-learning models. However, their reliability is often compromised by the unknown model behavior under the specific perturbations used. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Thomas Decker , Volker Tresp , Florian Buettner

Large language models present challenges for principled uncertainty quantification, in part due to their complexity and the diversity of their outputs. Semantic dispersion, or the variance in the meaning of sampled answers, has been…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Edward Phillips , Sean Wu , Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Boyan Gao , David A. Clifton

We present a method to quantify uncertainty in the predictions made by simulations of mathematical models that can be applied to a broad class of stochastic, discrete, and differential equation models. Quantifying uncertainty is crucial for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-05 Kyle S. Hickmann , James M. Hyman , Sara Y. Del Valle

Model selection is a necessary step in unsupervised machine learning. Despite numerous criteria and metrics, model selection remains subjective. A high degree of subjectivity may lead to questions about repeatability and reproducibility of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-08 Wanyi Chen , Mary L. Cummings

Multiple choice questions (MCQs) are commonly used to evaluate the capabilities of large language models (LLMs). One common way to evaluate the model response is to rank the candidate answers based on the log probability of the first token…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-08-21 Xinpeng Wang , Chengzhi Hu , Bolei Ma , Paul Röttger , Barbara Plank

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in information-seeking and decision-making tasks. Despite their broad utility, LLMs tend to generate information that conflicts with real-world facts, and their persuasive style can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-19 Arslan Chaudhry , Sridhar Thiagarajan , Dilan Gorur

Large language models (LLMs) could be valuable personal AI agents across various domains, provided they can precisely follow user instructions. However, recent studies have shown significant limitations in LLMs' instruction-following…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Juyeon Heo , Miao Xiong , Christina Heinze-Deml , Jaya Narain

Today, there is no clear legal test for regulating the use of variables that proxy for race and other protected classes and classifications. This Article develops such a test. Decision tools that use proxies are narrowly tailored when they…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Frank Fagan

We study the Popular Matching problem in multiple models, where the preferences of the agents in the instance may change or may be unknown/uncertain. In particular, we study an Uncertainty model, where each agent has a possible set of…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Gergely Csáji

This paper looks at the ability of large language models to participate in educational guided reading. We specifically, evaluate their ability to generate meaningful questions from the input text, generate diverse questions both in terms of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-22 Peter Ochieng

Although neural networks are powerful function approximators, the underlying modelling assumptions ultimately define the likelihood and thus the hypothesis class they are parameterizing. In classification, these assumptions are minimal as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-24 Maria R. Cervera , Rafael Dätwyler , Francesco D'Angelo , Hamza Keurti , Benjamin F. Grewe , Christian Henning

Statistical estimation of the prediction uncertainty of physical models is typically hindered by the inadequacy of these models due to various approximations they are built upon. The prediction errors due to model inadequacy can be handled…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-09-11 Pascal Pernot

Despite the widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) for recommendation, we demonstrate that LLMs often exhibit uncertainty in their recommendations. To ensure the trustworthy use of LLMs in generating recommendations, we…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-02-13 Wonbin Kweon , Sanghwan Jang , SeongKu Kang , Hwanjo Yu

One of the ways to make artificial intelligence more natural is to give it some room for doubt. Two main questions should be resolved in that way. First, how to train a model to estimate uncertainties of its own predictions? And then, what…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Alexey Kornaev , Elena Kornaeva , Oleg Ivanov , Ilya Pershin , Danis Alukaev

Equivariant models leverage prior knowledge on symmetries to improve predictive performance, but misspecified architectural constraints can harm it instead. While work has explored learning or relaxing constraints, selecting among…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-16 Putri A. van der Linden , Alexander Timans , Dharmesh Tailor , Erik J. Bekkers

Model explainability has become an important problem in machine learning (ML) due to the increased effect that algorithmic predictions have on humans. Explanations can help users understand not only why ML models make certain predictions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-13 Ana Lucic

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for automated tutoring, but their reliability in structured symbolic domains remains unclear. We study step-level feedback for propositional logic proofs, which require precise symbolic…

Modeling uncertainty in deep neural networks, despite recent important advances, is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are a powerful solution, where the prior over network weights is a design choice, often a normal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Yaniv Gurwicz , Shami Nisimov , Gal Novik

A problem faced by many instructors is that of designing exams that accurately assess the abilities of the students. Typically these exams are prepared several days in advance, and generic question scores are used based on rough…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2018-11-07 Sam Ganzfried , Farzana Yusuf
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