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This paper addresses the long-standing challenge of estimating the leverage effect from high-frequency data contaminated by dependent, non-Gaussian microstructure noise. We depart from the conventional reliance on pre-averaging or…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-11 Ziyang Xiong , Zhao Chen , Christina Dan Wang

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) have been used extensively to discover low-dimensional latent factors governing neural activity and animal behavior. However, without careful model selection, the uncovered latent factors may reflect noise in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Julia Huiming Wang , Dexter Tsin , Tatiana Engel

We consider a novel Bayesian approach to estimation, uncertainty quantification, and variable selection for a high-dimensional linear regression model under sparsity. The number of predictors can be nearly exponentially large relative to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-28 Samhita Pal , Subhashis Ghoshal

Change-plane regression identifies subpopulations through an interpretable linear threshold rule, but likelihood-based inference for the hard-threshold boundary is nonregular: objectives are non-smooth, the boundary is weakly identified…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Yuki Ohnishi , Fan Li

We propose a Machine Learning approach for optimal macroeconomic density forecasting in a high-dimensional setting where the underlying model exhibits a known group structure. Our approach is general enough to encompass specific forecasting…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-18 Matteo Mogliani , Anna Simoni

A new empirical Bayes approach to variable selection in the context of generalized linear models is developed. The proposed algorithm scales to situations in which the number of putative explanatory variables is very large, possibly much…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-29 Haim Bar , James Booth , Martin T. Wells

Covariate-dependent graph learning has gained increasing interest in the graphical modeling literature for the analysis of heterogeneous data. This task, however, poses challenges to modeling, computational efficiency, and interpretability.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-04 Zijian Zeng , Meng Li , Marina Vannucci

The effects of treatments may differ between persons with different characteristics. Addressing such treatment heterogeneity is crucial to investigate whether patients with specific characteristics are likely to benefit from a new…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-29 Xynthia Kavelaars , Joris Mulder , Maurits Kaptein

We propose and investigate new complementary methodologies for estimating predictive variance networks in regression neural networks. We derive a locally aware mini-batching scheme that result in sparse robust gradients, and show how to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-05 Nicki S. Detlefsen , Martin Jørgensen , Søren Hauberg

We extend the well-known and widely used Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) by including nodal random effects to compensate for heterogeneity in the nodes of a network. The Bayesian framework for ERGMs proposed by Caimo and Friel (2011)…

Applications · Statistics 2015-01-13 Stephanie Thiemichen , Nial Friel , Alberto Caimo , Göran Kauermann

In this paper, we estimate and leverage latent constant group structure to generate the point, set, and density forecasts for short dynamic panel data. We implement a nonparametric Bayesian approach to simultaneously identify coefficients…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-10-06 Boyuan Zhang

We discuss a Bayesian formulation to coarse-graining (CG) of PDEs where the coefficients (e.g. material parameters) exhibit random, fine scale variability. The direct solution to such problems requires grids that are small enough to resolve…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-10 Constantin Grigo , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

Motivated by the need to study the molecular mechanism underlying Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) with the gene expression data collected from both the patients and healthy controls at multiple time points, we propose an innovative method for jointly…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-10 Bochao Jia , Faming Liang , the TEDDY Study Group

We introduce a new shrinkage variable selection operator for linear models which we term the \emph{adaptive ridge selector} (ARiS). This approach is inspired by the \emph{relevance vector machine} (RVM), which uses a Bayesian hierarchical…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-05-28 Artin Armagan , Russell Zaretzki

Recommender system research has oftentimes focused on approaches that operate on large-scale datasets containing millions of user interactions. However, many small businesses struggle to apply state-of-the-art models due to their very…

Exogenous heterogeneity, for example, in the form of instrumental variables can help us learn a system's underlying causal structure and predict the outcome of unseen intervention experiments. In this paper, we consider linear models in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-21 Niklas Pfister , Jonas Peters

Sparse additive modeling is a class of effective methods for performing high-dimensional nonparametric regression. This paper develops a sparse additive model focused on estimation of treatment effect-modification with simultaneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-02 Hyung Park , Eva Petkova , Thaddeus Tarpey , R. Todd Ogden

The paper addresses joint sparsity selection in the regression coefficient matrix and the error precision (inverse covariance) matrix for high-dimensional multivariate regression models in the Bayesian paradigm. The selected sparsity…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-19 Srijata Samanta , Kshitij Khare , George Michailidis

Motivated by the increasing use of and rapid changes in array technologies, we consider the prediction problem of fitting a linear regression relating a continuous outcome $Y$ to a large number of covariates $\mathbf {X}$, for example,…

Applications · Statistics 2014-01-13 Philip S. Boonstra , Bhramar Mukherjee , Jeremy M. G. Taylor

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Zhenyu A. Liao , Charupriya Sharma , James Cussens , Peter van Beek