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We propose a Likelihood Matching approach for training diffusion models by first establishing an equivalence between the likelihood of the target data distribution and a likelihood along the sample path of the reverse diffusion. To…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-23 Lei Qian , Wu Su , Yanqi Huang , Song Xi Chen

Data assimilation is a fundamental task in updating forecasting models upon observing new data, with applications ranging from weather prediction to online reinforcement learning. Deep generative forecasting models (DGFMs) have shown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-25 Shreya Sinha-Roy , Richard G. Everitt , Christian P. Robert , Ritabrata Dutta

Regional high-resolution climate projections are crucial for many applications, such as agriculture, hydrology, and natural hazard risk assessment. Dynamical downscaling, the state-of-the-art method to produce localized future climate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-03 Ignacio Lopez-Gomez , Zhong Yi Wan , Leonardo Zepeda-Núñez , Tapio Schneider , John Anderson , Fei Sha

Knowing the actual precipitation in space and time is critical in hydrological modelling applications, yet the spatial coverage with rain gauge stations is limited due to economic constraints. Gridded satellite precipitation datasets offer…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-08-04 Hristos Tyralis , Georgia Papacharalampous , Nikolaos Doulamis , Anastasios Doulamis

Locally weighted regression was created as a nonparametric learning method that is computationally efficient, can learn from very large amounts of data and add data incrementally. An interesting feature of locally weighted regression is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-02-05 Franziska Meier , Philipp Hennig , Stefan Schaal

This paper presents a novel deep learning based data-driven optimization method. A novel generative adversarial network (GAN) based data-driven distributionally robust chance constrained programming framework is proposed. GAN is applied to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-12 Shipu Zhao , Fengqi You

Password guessing approaches via deep learning have recently been investigated with significant breakthroughs in their ability to generate novel, realistic password candidates. In the present work we study a broad collection of deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-18 David Biesner , Kostadin Cvejoski , Bogdan Georgiev , Rafet Sifa , Erik Krupicka

The operation and planning of large-scale power systems are becoming more challenging with the increasing penetration of stochastic renewable generation. In order to minimize the decision risks in power systems with large amount of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-03-14 Congmei Jiang , Yize Chen , Yongfang Mao , Yi Chai , Mingbiao Yu

We present a generative modeling framework for synthesizing physically feasible two-dimensional incompressible flows under arbitrary obstacle geometries and boundary conditions. Whereas existing diffusion-based flow generators either ignore…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-02-23 Noah Trupin , Rahul Ghosh , Aadi Jangid

Generative adversarial networks constitute a powerful approach to generative modeling. While generated samples often are indistinguishable from real data, there is no guarantee that they will follow the true data distribution. For…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-09 Philipp Pilar , Niklas Wahlström

A common objective in the analysis of tabular data is estimating the conditional distribution (in contrast to only producing predictions) of a set of "outcome" variables given a set of "covariates", which is sometimes referred to as the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-08 Zhuoqun Wang , Naoki Awaya , Li Ma

When optimizing against the mean loss over a distribution of predictions in the context of a regression task, then even if there is a distribution of targets the optimal prediction distribution is always a delta function at a single value.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-11 Nicholas Guttenberg

While deep-learning downscaling algorithms can generate fine-scale climate projections cost-effectively, it is still unclear how well they will extrapolate to unobserved climates. We assess the extrapolation capabilities of a deterministic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-09 Neelesh Rampal , Peter B. Gibson , Steven Sherwood , Gab Abramowitz

We are interested in the design of generative networks. The training of these mathematical structures is mostly performed with the help of adversarial (min-max) optimization problems. We propose a simple methodology for constructing such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Kalliopi Basioti , George V. Moustakides

Quantitative workflows utilizing real-time data to constrain ahead-of-bit uncertainty have the potential to improve geosteering significantly. Fast updates based on real-time data are essential when drilling in complex reservoirs with high…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-07-05 Sergey Alyaev , Jan Tveranger , Kristian Fossum , Ahmed H. Elsheikh

The conditional generative adversarial rainfall model "cGAN" developed for the UK \cite{Harris22} was trained to post-process into an ensemble and downscale ERA5 rainfall to 1km resolution over three regions of the USA and the UK. Relative…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-09-28 Fenwick C. Cooper , Andrew T. T. McRae , Matthew Chantry , Bobby Antonio , Tim N. Palmer

Short-range forecasts of precipitation fields are needed in a wealth of agricultural, hydrological, ecological and other applications. Forecasts from numerical weather prediction models are often biased and do not provide uncertainty…

Applications · Statistics 2009-01-23 Veronica J. Berrocal , Adrian E. Raftery , Tilmann Gneiting

Seasonal forecasting remains challenging due to the inherent chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics. This paper introduces DeepSeasons, a novel deep learning approach designed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of seasonal forecasts.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-16 A. Navarra , G. G. Navarra

Kilometer-scale weather data is crucial for real-world applications but remains computationally intensive to produce using traditional weather simulations. An emerging solution is to use deep learning models, which offer a faster…

Geophysical inverse problems are often ill-posed and admit multiple solutions. Conventional discriminative methods typically yield a single deterministic solution, which fails to model the posterior distribution, cannot generate diverse…