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Conformal prediction has become increasingly popular for quantifying the uncertainty associated with machine learning models. Recent work in graph uncertainty quantification has built upon this approach for conformal graph prediction. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Pranav Maneriker , Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Yuntian He , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Automated decision support systems promise to help human experts solve multiclass classification tasks more efficiently and accurately. However, existing systems typically require experts to understand when to cede agency to the system or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-03 Eleni Straitouri , Lequn Wang , Nastaran Okati , Manuel Gomez Rodriguez

We extend the method of conformal prediction beyond the case relying on labeled calibration data. Replacing the calibration scores by suitable estimates, we identify conformity sets $C$ for classification and regression models that rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-15 Jonas Flechsig , Maximilian Pilz

Standard conformal prediction offers a marginal guarantee on coverage, but for prediction sets to be truly useful, they should ideally ensure coverage conditional on each test point. Unfortunately, it is impossible to achieve exact,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Jivat Neet Kaur , Michael I. Jordan , Ahmed Alaa

Multi-label ranking maps instances to a ranked set of predicted labels from multiple possible classes. The ranking approach for multi-label learning problems received attention for its success in multi-label classification, with one of the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-09 Emine Dari , V. Bugra Yesilkaynak , Alican Mertan , Gozde Unal

We develop conformal prediction methods for constructing valid predictive confidence sets in multiclass and multilabel problems without assumptions on the data generating distribution. A challenge here is that typical conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-14 Maxime Cauchois , Suyash Gupta , John Duchi

Conformal prediction is a powerful framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. The standard approach to conformal prediction relies on comparing the ranks of prediction scores: under exchangeability, the rank of a future…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Conformal prediction is a useful and versatile alternative to model calibration in machine learning classification. It replaces single-class prediction with prediction sets, guaranteeing that the \textit{a priori} probability of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Sol Erika Boman

Conformal Prediction (CP) quantifies network uncertainty by building a small prediction set with a pre-defined probability that the correct class is within this set. In this study we tackle the problem of CP calibration based on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Coby Penso , Jacob Goldberger

The expense of acquiring labels in large-scale statistical machine learning makes partially and weakly-labeled data attractive, though it is not always apparent how to leverage such data for model fitting or validation. We present a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-10 Maxime Cauchois , Suyash Gupta , Alnur Ali , John Duchi

Methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions from arbitrary models are in demand in high-stakes domains like medicine and finance. Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular method for producing a set of predictions with specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jessica Hullman , Yifan Wu , Dawei Xie , Ziyang Guo , Andrew Gelman

When a machine learning model is deployed, its predictions can alter its environment, as better informed agents strategize to suit their own interests. With such alterations in mind, existing approaches to uncertainty quantification break.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-05 Daniel Csillag , Claudio José Struchiner , Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

Conformal prediction provides model-agnostic and distribution-free uncertainty quantification through prediction sets that are guaranteed to include the ground truth with any user-specified probability. Yet, conformal prediction is not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Yan Scholten , Stephan Günnemann

We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Shai Feldman , Stephen Bates , Yaniv Romano

Conformal prediction is a general distribution-free approach for constructing prediction sets combined with any machine learning algorithm that achieve valid marginal or conditional coverage in finite samples. Ordinal classification is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Subhrasish Chakraborty , Chhavi Tyagi , Haiyan Qiao , Wenge Guo

Rankings are central to decision-making in fields ranging from education to online platforms, yet classical deterministic methods such as the Borda count method or Copeland-type pairwise methods ignore uncertainty due to sampling noise or…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Shunpu Zhang

Modern image classifiers are very accurate, but the predictions come without uncertainty estimates. Conformal predictors provide uncertainty estimates by computing a set of classes containing the correct class with a user-specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Fatih Furkan Yilmaz , Reinhard Heckel

While the accuracy of modern deep learning models has significantly improved in recent years, the ability of these models to generate uncertainty estimates has not progressed to the same degree. Uncertainty methods are designed to provide…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-17 Adam M. Oberman , Chris Finlay , Alexander Iannantuono , Tiago Salvador

Ranking populations such as institutions based on certain characteristics is often of interest, and these ranks are typically estimated using samples drawn from the populations. Due to sample randomness, it is important to quantify the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-08 Onrina Chandra , Min-ge Xie