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The aim of the present study is to detect abrupt trend changes in the mean of a multidimensional sequential signal. Directly inspired by papers of Fernhead and Liu ([4] and [5]), this work describes the signal in a hierarchical manner : the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Olivier Sorba , C Geissler

To model recurrent interaction events in continuous time, an extension of the stochastic block model is proposed where every individual belongs to a latent group and interactions between two individuals follow a conditional inhomogeneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-30 Catherine Matias , Tabea Rebafka , Fanny Villers

Changes in the structure of observed social and complex networks' structure can indicate a significant underlying change in an organization, or reflect the response of the network to an external event. Automatic detection of change points…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Hadar Miller , Osnat Mokryn

Predicting epidemic dynamics is of great value in understanding and controlling diffusion processes, such as infectious disease spread and information propagation. This task is intractable, especially when surveillance resources are very…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-04 Hongbin Pei , Bo Yang , Jiming Liu , Lei Dong

This paper studies estimation and inference of heterogeneous peer effects featuring group fixed effects and slope heterogeneity under latent structure. We adapt the Classifier-Lasso algorithm to consistently discover latent structures and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Zhongjian Lin , Zhentao Shi , Yapeng Zheng

We propose an online detection procedure for cascading failures in the network from sequential data, which can be modeled as multiple correlated change-points happening during a short period. We consider a temporal diffusion network model…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2021-02-09 Rui Zhang , Yao Xie , Rui Yao , Feng Qiu

As more and more network-structured data sets are available, the statistical analysis of valued graphs has become common place. Looking for a latent structure is one of the many strategies used to better understand the behavior of a…

Applications · Statistics 2010-11-09 Mahendra Mariadassou , Stéphane Robin , Corinne Vacher

We propose a new framework for the detection of change-points in online, sequential data analysis. The approach utilizes nearest neighbor information and can be applied to sequences of multivariate observations or non-Euclidean data…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-01 Hao Chen

Many machine learning applications use latent variable models to explain structure in data, whereby visible variables (= coordinates of the given datapoint) are explained as a probabilistic function of some hidden variables. Finding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-12-30 Sanjeev Arora , Rong Ge , Tengyu Ma , Andrej Risteski

Graph-based change point detection (CPD) play an irreplaceable role in discovering anomalous graphs in the time-varying network. While several techniques have been proposed to detect change points by identifying whether there is a…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Yongshun Gong , Xue Dong , Jian Zhang , Meng Chen

Point process models have been used to analyze interaction event times on a social network, in the hope to provides valuable insights for social science research. However, the diagnostics and visualization of the modeling results from such…

Applications · Statistics 2020-01-28 Jing Wu , Anna L. Smith , Tian Zheng

This paper introduces a framework to analyze time-varying spillover effects in panel data. We consider panel models where a unit's outcome depends not only on its own characteristics (private effects) but also on the characteristics of…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-17 Ryo Okui , Yutao Sun , Wendun Wang

Changepoint models typically assume the data within each segment are independent and identically distributed conditional on some parameters which change across segments. This construction may be inadequate when data are subject to local…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-10 Karl L. Hallgren , Nicholas A. Heard , Niall M. Adams

Detecting a change point is a crucial task in statistics that has been recently extended to the quantum realm. A source state generator that emits a series of single photons in a default state suffers an alteration at some point and starts…

This paper proposes an online, provably robust, and scalable Bayesian approach for changepoint detection. The resulting algorithm has key advantages over previous work: it provides provable robustness by leveraging the generalised Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-15 Matias Altamirano , François-Xavier Briol , Jeremias Knoblauch

Individuals or companies in a large social or financial network often display rather heterogeneous behaviors for various reasons. In this work, we propose a network vector autoregressive model with a latent group structure to model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-14 Xuening Zhu , Ganggang Xu , Jianqing Fan

Large volume of networked streaming event data are becoming increasingly available in a wide variety of applications, such as social network analysis, Internet traffic monitoring and healthcare analytics. Streaming event data are discrete…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-20 Shuang Li , Yao Xie , Mehrdad Farajtabar , Apurv Verma , Le Song

Bayesian network structure learning algorithms with limited data are being used in domains such as systems biology and neuroscience to gain insight into the underlying processes that produce observed data. Learning reliable networks from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-07-10 Diane Oyen , Terran Lane

Detecting abrupt changes in the community structure of a network from noisy observations is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. This paper presents an online change detection algorithm called Spectral-CUSUM to detect…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-17 Minghe Zhang , Liyan Xie , Yao Xie

When modeling network data using a latent position model, it is typical to assume that the nodes' positions are independently and identically distributed. However, this assumption implies the average node degree grows linearly with the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-07 Neil A. Spencer , Cosma Rohilla Shalizi