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The semivarying coefficient models are widely used in the application of finance, economics, medical science and many other areas. The functional coefficients are commonly estimated by local smoothing methods, e.g. local linear estimator.…
Stochastic variational inference algorithms are derived for fitting various heteroskedastic time series models. We examine Gaussian, t, and skew-t response GARCH models and fit these using Gaussian variational approximating densities. We…
In this paper, we investigate time-varying nonlinear time series regression for a broad class of locally stationary time series. First, we propose sieve nonparametric estimators for the time-varying regression functions that achieve uniform…
We combine Bayesian prediction and weighted inference as a unified approach to survey inference. The general principles of Bayesian analysis imply that models for survey outcomes should be conditional on all variables that affect the…
Starting from the information contained in the shape of the load curves, we have proposed a flexible nonparametric function-valued fore-cast model called KWF (Kernel+Wavelet+Functional) well suited to handle nonstationary series. The…
Bootstrapping is often applied to get confidence limits for semiparametric inference of a target parameter in the presence of nuisance parameters. Bootstrapping with replacement can be computationally expensive and problematic when…
The multivariate Fay-Herriot model is quite effective in combining information through correlations among small area survey estimates of related variables or historical survey estimates of the same variable or both. Though the literature on…
We propose new resampling-based approaches to construct asymptotically valid time simultaneous confidence bands for cumulative hazard functions in multi-state Cox models. In particular, we exemplify the methodology in detail for the simple…
A general class of time-varying regression models is considered in this paper. We estimate the regression coefficients by using local linear M-estimation. For these estimators, weak Bahadur representations are obtained and are used to…
We develop unified theory and methodology for the inference of evolutionary Fourier power spectra for a general class of locally stationary and possibly nonlinear processes. In particular, simultaneous confidence regions (SCR) with…
In this paper, we investigate a semiparametric regression model under the context of treatment effects via a localized neural network (LNN) approach. Due to a vast number of parameters involved, we reduce the number of effective parameters…
We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…
To address the difficult problem of multi-step ahead prediction of non-parametric autoregressions, we consider a forward bootstrap approach. Employing a local constant estimator, we can analyze a general type of non-parametric time series…
We propose a new parametrization for the estimation and identification of the impulse-response functions (IRFs) of dynamic factor models (DFMs). The theoretical contribution of this paper concerns the problem of observational equivalence…
This paper studies the inference of the regression coefficient matrix under multivariate response linear regressions in the presence of hidden variables. A novel procedure for constructing confidence intervals of entries of the coefficient…
Motivated by statistical inference problems in high-dimensional time series data analysis, we first derive non-asymptotic error bounds for Gaussian approximations of sums of high-dimensional dependent random vectors on hyper-rectangles,…
We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…
Non-linear hierarchical models are commonly used in many disciplines. However, inference in the presence of non-nested effects and on large datasets is challenging and computationally burdensome. This paper provides two contributions to…
Automating scientific discovery has been a grand goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and will bring tremendous societal impact. Learning symbolic expressions from experimental data is a vital step in AI-driven scientific discovery. Despite…
Stochastic variational inference (SVI) employs stochastic optimization to scale up Bayesian computation to massive data. Since SVI is at its core a stochastic gradient-based algorithm, horizontal parallelism can be harnessed to allow larger…