Related papers: Protection Degree and Migration in the Stochastic …
Epidemic modelling on complex networks has been studied intensively all the time. The majority of relative research assumes that the time scale of the underlying network evolution is much larger compared to the propagation dynamics on it,…
In this paper we propose a novel SEIR stochastic epidemic model. A distinguishing feature of this new model is that it allows us to consider a set up under general latency and infectious period distributions. To some extent, queuing systems…
A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…
The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the…
Social networks are an important infrastructure for information, viruses and innovations propagation. Since users behavior has influenced by other users activity, some groups of people would be made regard to similarity of users interests.…
We study the spread of stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemics in two types of structured populations, both consisting of schools and households. In each of the types, every individual is part of one school…
The growing literature on the propagation of COVID-19 relies on various dynamic SIR-type models (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) which yield model-dependent results. For transparency and ease of comparing the results, we introduce a common…
Mathematical models are formal and simplified representations of the knowledge related to a phenomenon. In classical epidemic models, a neglected aspect is the heterogeneity of disease transmission and progression linked to the viral load…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown that when the reproduction number is high and there are no proper measurements in place, the number of infected people can increase dramatically in a short time, producing a phenomenon that many…
This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…
This paper focuses on the analysis of a stochastic SAIRS-type epidemic model that explicitly incorporates the roles of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals in disease transmission dynamics. Asymptomatic carriers, often…
Understanding infectious disease spread remains a critical public health challenge, particularly given the interplay between household dynamics and community transmission patterns. Traditional epidemiological models often oversimplify these…
Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
We study a multilayer SIR model with two levels of mixing, namely a global level which is uniformly mixing, and a local level with two layers distinguishing household and workplace contacts, respectively. We establish the large population…
We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…
This paper studies the spread dynamics of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and varying population size, which is formulated as a piecewise deterministic Markov process. A threshold dynamic determined by the basic…
The primary goal of this research is to investigate the impact of delay on the dynamics of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Death and Susceptible (SEIRDS) model, to which we add a stochastic term to account for uncertainty in…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…