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Deep ensembles can be considered as the current state-of-the-art for uncertainty quantification in deep learning. While the approach was originally proposed as a non-Bayesian technique, arguments supporting its Bayesian footing have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-19 Lara Hoffmann , Clemens Elster

In this paper, we present a novel approach to accelerate the Bayesian inference process, focusing specifically on the nested sampling algorithms. Bayesian inference plays a crucial role in cosmological parameter estimation, providing a…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-10-17 Isidro Gómez-Vargas , J. Alberto Vázquez

Despite deep-learning being state-of-the-art for data-driven model predictions, it has not yet found frequent application in ecology. Given the low sample size typical in many environmental research fields, the default choice for the…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-29 Marieke Wesselkamp , Niklas Moser , Maria Kalweit , Joschka Boedecker , Carsten F. Dormann

Deep Learning models are vulnerable to adversarial examples, i.e.\ images obtained via deliberate imperceptible perturbations, such that the model misclassifies them with high confidence. However, class confidence by itself is an incomplete…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-23 Ambrish Rawat , Martin Wistuba , Maria-Irina Nicolae

Controlling the environmental parameters, including light in greenhouses, increases the crop yield; however, the electricity cost of supplemental lighting can be high. Therefore, the importance of applying cost-effective lighting methods…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-10 Shirin Afzali , Yajie Bao , Marc W. van Iersel , Javad Mohammadpour Velni

The combination of Monte Carlo tree search and neural networks has revolutionized online planning. As neural network approximations are often imperfect, we ask whether uncertainty estimates about the network outputs could be used to improve…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Nir Greshler , David Ben Eli , Carmel Rabinovitz , Gabi Guetta , Liran Gispan , Guy Zohar , Aviv Tamar

The continuous dynamics of natural systems has been effectively modelled using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs). However, for accurate and meaningful predictions, it is crucial that the models follow the underlying rules…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-06 C. Coelho , M. Fernanda P. Costa , L. L. Ferrás

Deep learning tools have gained tremendous attention in applied machine learning. However such tools for regression and classification do not capture model uncertainty. In comparison, Bayesian models offer a mathematically grounded…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-05 Yarin Gal , Zoubin Ghahramani

Continuous-time Bayesian Networks (CTBNs) represent a compact yet powerful framework for understanding multivariate time-series data. Given complete data, parameters and structure can be estimated efficiently in closed-form. However, if…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-04 Dominik Linzner , Michael Schmidt , Heinz Koeppl

There is a growing demand for accurate high-resolution land cover maps in many fields, e.g., in land-use planning and biodiversity conservation. Developing such maps has been performed using Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA) methods, which…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-06-06 Emilio Guirado , Siham Tabik , Domingo Alcaraz-Segura , Javier Cabello , Francisco Herrera

Despite over three hundred years of effort, no solutions exist for predicting when a general planetary configuration will become unstable. We introduce a deep learning architecture to push forward this problem for compact systems. While…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2021-10-20 Miles Cranmer , Daniel Tamayo , Hanno Rein , Peter Battaglia , Samuel Hadden , Philip J. Armitage , Shirley Ho , David N. Spergel

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-03 Konstantin Posch , Jürgen Pilz

Neural operators are a type of deep architecture that learns to solve (i.e. learns the nonlinear solution operator of) partial differential equations (PDEs). The current state of the art for these models does not provide explicit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-03 Emilia Magnani , Nicholas Krämer , Runa Eschenhagen , Lorenzo Rosasco , Philipp Hennig

Determining the aqueous solubility of molecules is a vital step in many pharmaceutical, environmental, and energy storage applications. Despite efforts made over decades, there are still challenges associated with developing a solubility…

Materials Science · Physics 2022-09-05 Gihan Panapitiya , Michael Girard , Aaron Hollas , Vijay Murugesan , Wei Wang , Emily Saldanha

Recently, combinations of generative and Bayesian machine learning have been introduced in particle physics for both fast detector simulation and inference tasks. These neural networks aim to quantify the uncertainty on the generated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-21 Sebastian Bieringer , Sascha Diefenbacher , Gregor Kasieczka , Mathias Trabs

The task of quantifying the inherent uncertainty associated with neural network predictions is a key challenge in artificial intelligence. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles are among the most prominent approaches to tackle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Valentin Villecroze , Yixin Wang , Gabriel Loaiza-Ganem

Inferring parameters of macro-kinetic growth models, typically represented by Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE), from the experimental data is a crucial step in bioprocess engineering. Conventionally, estimates of the parameters are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-07 Maxim Borisyak , Stefan Born , Peter Neubauer , Mariano Nicolas Cruz-Bournazou

One of the core facets of Bayesianism is in the updating of prior beliefs in light of new evidence$\text{ -- }$so how can we maintain a Bayesian approach if we have no prior beliefs in the first place? This is one of the central challenges…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Tommy Rochussen , Vincent Fortuin

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a tool to estimate the uncertainty of a neural network by considering a distribution over weights and sampling different models for each input. In this paper, we propose a method for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Illia Oleksiienko , Dat Thanh Tran , Alexandros Iosifidis

Joint distributions over many variables are frequently modeled by decomposing them into products of simpler, lower-dimensional conditional distributions, such as in sparsely connected Bayesian networks. However, automatically learning such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Scott Davies , Andrew Moore
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