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Estimating the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations is a ubiquitous problem in a large number of applications, such as probabilistic weather forecasting and prediction of epidemics. Particle filters are a widely…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-21 E. Calvello , J. A. Carrillo , F. Hoffmann , P. Monmarché , A. M. Stuart , U. Vaes

We present a new strategy for filtering high-dimensional multiscale systems characterized by high-order non-Gaussian statistics using observations from leading-order moments. A closed stochastic-statistical modeling framework suitable for…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2024-07-09 Di Qi , Jian-Guo Liu

We consider filtering in high-dimensional non-Gaussian state-space models with intractable transition kernels, nonlinear and possibly chaotic dynamics, and sparse observations in space and time. We propose a novel filtering methodology that…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-07 Alessio Spantini , Ricardo Baptista , Youssef Marzouk

We develop a general framework for state estimation in systems modeled with noise-polluted continuous time dynamics and discrete time noisy measurements. Our approach is based on maximum likelihood estimation and employs the calculus of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-16 Griffin M. Kearney , Makan Fardad

We use statistical learning methods to construct an adaptive state estimator for nonlinear stochastic systems. Optimal state estimation, in the form of a Kalman filter, requires knowledge of the system's process and measurement uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-05 Michael Busch , Jeff Moehlis

Motivated by the maneuvering target tracking with sensors such as radar and sonar, this paper considers the joint and recursive estimation of the dynamic state and the time-varying process noise covariance in nonlinear state space models.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-05-09 Hua Lan , Jinjie Hu , Zengfu Wang , Qiang Cheng

This paper is considered with joint estimation of state and time-varying noise covariance matrices in non-linear stochastic state space models. We present a variational Bayes and Gaussian filtering based algorithm for efficient computation…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-05 Simo Särkkä Jouni Hartikainen

A likelihood-free transport filtering method is proposed based on the couplings between state and observation variables. By exploiting a block-triangular structure in the transport map, the analysis step of filtering is reformulated as the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Dengfei Zeng , Lijian Jiang , Shuyu Sun , Dunhui Xiao

The filtering distribution captures the statistics of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. Classical particle filters provably approximate this distribution in quite general settings; however they behave…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-10 Edoardo Calvello , Pierre Monmarché , Andrew M. Stuart , Urbain Vaes

In this work, we consider a sensor selection drawn at random by a sampling with replacement policy for a linear time-invariant dynamical system subject to process and measurement noise. We employ the Kalman filter to estimate the state of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-15 Christopher I. Calle , Shaunak D. Bopardikar

This paper considers the Linear Minimum Variance recursive state estimation for the linear discrete time dynamic system with random state transition and measurement matrices, i.e., random parameter matrices Kalman filtering. It is shown…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Dandan Luo , Yunmin Zhu

This paper presents an adaptive Kalman filter for a linear dynamic system perturbed by an additive disturbance. The objective is to estimate both of the state and the unknown disturbance concurrently, while learning the disturbance as a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-23 Taeyoung Lee

Traditional filtering algorithms for state estimation -- such as classical Kalman filtering, unscented Kalman filtering, and particle filters - show performance degradation when applied to nonlinear systems whose uncertainty follows…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Luke S. Lagunowich , Guoxiang Grayson Tong , Daniele E. Schiavazzi

Gaussian mixtures are a common density representation in nonlinear, non-Gaussian Bayesian state estimation. Selecting an appropriate number of Gaussian components, however, is difficult as one has to trade of computational complexity…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2012-04-02 Marco F. Huber

Gaussian mixture filters for nonlinear systems usually rely on severe approximations when calculating mixtures in the prediction and filtering step. Thus, offline approximations of noise densities by Gaussian mixture densities to reduce the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-02 Ondŕej Straka , Uwe D. Hanebeck

Consider a linear stochastic system whose initial state is a random vector with a specified Gaussian distribution. Such a distribution may represent a collection of particles abiding by the specified system dynamics. In recent publications,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-04-06 Yongxin Chen , Tryphon T. Georgiou , Michele Pavon

Kalman filtering has been traditionally applied in three application areas of estimation, state estimation, parameter estimation (a.k.a. model updating), and dual estimation. However, Kalman filter is often not sufficient when experimenting…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-11-11 Johnny Condori , Amin Maghareh , Shirley Dyke

In this paper, we propose a non-parametric method for state estimation of high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems, which evolve according to gradient flows with isotropic diffusion. We combine diffusion maps, a manifold…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-02-26 Tal Shnitzer , Ronen Talmon , Jean-Jacques Slotine

Kalman filtering is a classic state estimation technique used in application areas such as signal processing and autonomous control of vehicles. It is now being used to solve problems in computer systems such as controlling the voltage and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-07-01 Yan Pei , Swarnendu Biswas , Donald S. Fussell , Keshav Pingali

We consider the problem of steering, via output feedback, the state distribution of a discrete-time, linear stochastic system from an initial Gaussian distribution to a terminal Gaussian distribution with prescribed mean and maximum…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-11 Jack Ridderhof , Kazuhide Okamoto , Panagiotis Tsiotras
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