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Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide powerful probabilistic frameworks for interpolation, forecasting, and smoothing, but have been hampered by computational scaling issues. Here we investigate data sampled on one dimension (e.g., a scalar or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-04 Jackson Loper , David Blei , John P. Cunningham , Liam Paninski

The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the integration over the latent values is approximated using the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-09 Aki Vehtari , Tommi Mononen , Ville Tolvanen , Tuomas Sivula , Ole Winther

Generalized linear models (GLM) are link function based statistical models. Many supervised learning algorithms are extensions of GLMs and have link functions built into the algorithm to model different outcome distributions. There are two…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-02 Colleen M. Farrelly , Srikanth Namuduri , Uchenna Chukwu

Sparse regularized regression methods are now widely used in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to address the multiple testing burden that limits discovery of potentially important predictors. Linear mixed models (LMMs) have become an…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-27 Julien St-Pierre , Karim Oualkacha , Sahir Rai Bhatnagar

Power-expected-posterior (PEP) methodology, which borrows ideas from the literature on power priors, expected-posterior priors and unit information priors, provides a systematic way to construct objective priors. The basic idea is to use…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-07 Anupreet Porwal , Abel Rodriguez

We address regularised versions of the Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm for Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) in the context of panel data (measured on several individuals at different time-points). A random response y is…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-21 Jocelyn Chauvet , Catherine Trottier , Xavier Bry

Standard Bayesian inference schemes are infeasible for inverse problems with computationally expensive forward models. A common solution is to replace the model with a cheaper surrogate. To avoid overconfident conclusions, it is essential…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-09 Andrew Gerard Roberts , Michael Dietze , Jonathan H. Huggins

Expectation propagation (EP) is a powerful approximate inference algorithm. However, a critical barrier in applying EP is that the moment matching in message updates can be intractable. Handcrafting approximations is usually tricky, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-11 Zheng Wang , Shandian Zhe

While Gaussian probability densities are omnipresent in applied mathematics, Gaussian cumulative probabilities are hard to calculate in any but the univariate case. We study the utility of Expectation Propagation (EP) as an approximate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-02 John P. Cunningham , Philipp Hennig , Simon Lacoste-Julien

A statistical method for the elicitation of priors in Bayesian generalised linear models (GLMs) and extensions is proposed. Probabilistic predictions are elicited from the expert to parametrise a multivariate t prior distribution for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-21 Geoffrey R. Hosack

This paper proposes a new algorithm for Gaussian process classification based on posterior linearisation (PL). In PL, a Gaussian approximation to the posterior density is obtained iteratively using the best possible linearisation of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-19 Ángel F. García-Fernández , Filip Tronarp , Simo Särkkä

Generalized linear models (GLMs) are routinely used for modeling relationships between a response variable and a set of covariates. The simple form of a GLM comes with easy interpretability, but also leads to concerns about model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-10 Davide Agnoletto , Tommaso Rigon , David B. Dunson

Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) commonly arise in communication systems, particularly in bilinear joint estimation and detection problems. Although the product of GMMs is still a GMM, as the number of factors increases, the number of…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-04 Zilu Zhao , Dirk Slock

In this work, we address the problem of solving a series of underdetermined linear inverse problems subject to a sparsity constraint. We generalize the spike-and-slab prior distribution to encode a priori correlation of the support of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-19 Michael Riis Andersen , Aki Vehtari , Ole Winther , Lars Kai Hansen

This paper considers the robust and efficient implementation of Gaussian process regression with a Student-t observation model. The challenge with the Student-t model is the analytically intractable inference which is why several…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-06-28 Pasi Jylänki , Jarno Vanhatalo , Aki Vehtari

Binary regression models represent a popular model-based approach for binary classification. In the Bayesian framework, computational challenges in the form of the posterior distribution motivate still-ongoing fruitful research. Here, we…

Computation · Statistics 2023-09-06 Augusto Fasano , Niccolò Anceschi , Beatrice Franzolini , Giovanni Rebaudo

The computational cost for inference and prediction of statistical models based on Gaussian processes with Mat\'ern covariance functions scales cubicly with the number of observations, limiting their applicability to large data sets. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-04 David Bolin , Vaibhav Mehandiratta , Alexandre B. Simas

The multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) approach of Friedman (1991) and its Bayesian counterpart (Francom et al. 2018) are effective approaches for the emulation of computer models. The traditional assumption of Gaussian errors…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Kellin Rumsey , Devin Francom , Andy Shen

Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-08-12 Jie Chen , Nannan Cao , Kian Hsiang Low , Ruofei Ouyang , Colin Keng-Yan Tan , Patrick Jaillet

Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-05-27 Jie Chen , Nannan Cao , Kian Hsiang Low , Ruofei Ouyang , Colin Keng-Yan Tan , Patrick Jaillet