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There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model -- uncertainty which can be explained…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account…

The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the…

The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with…

The quantification of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in terms of conditional entropy and mutual information, respectively, has recently become quite common in machine learning. While the properties of these measures, which are rooted…

The idea to distinguish and quantify two important types of uncertainty, often referred to as aleatoric and epistemic, has received increasing attention in machine learning research in the last couple of years. In this paper, we consider…

Despite AI's impressive achievements, including recent advances in generative and large language models, there remains a significant gap in the ability of AI systems to handle uncertainty and generalize beyond their training data. AI models…

Recent advancements in machine learning have emphasized the need for transparency in model predictions, particularly as interpretability diminishes when using increasingly complex architectures. In this paper, we propose leveraging…

When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for…

Fair predictive algorithms hinge on both equality and trust, yet inherent uncertainty in real-world data challenges our ability to make consistent, fair, and calibrated decisions. While fairly managing predictive error has been extensively…

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in complex visual understanding across scientific and reasoning tasks. While performance benchmarking has advanced our understanding of these capabilities, the critical…

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and…

Reliable uncertainty quantification is crucial for trustworthy decision-making and the deployment of AI models in medical imaging. While prior work has explored the ability of neural networks to quantify predictive, epistemic, and aleatoric…

We introduce a novel framework for AI-generated image detection through epistemic uncertainty, aiming to address critical security concerns in the era of generative models. Our key insight stems from the observation that distributional…

We present a novel approach to uncertainty quantification in classification tasks based on label-wise decomposition of uncertainty measures. This label-wise perspective allows uncertainty to be quantified at the individual class level,…

Aleatoric (data) and epistemic (knowledge) uncertainty are textbook components of Uncertainty Quantification. Jointly estimating these components has been shown to be problematic and non-trivial. As a result, there are multiple ways to…

Identifying and disentangling sources of predictive uncertainty is essential for trustworthy supervised learning. We argue that widely used second-order methods that disentangle aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are fundamentally…

The paper investigates whether and how AI systems can realize states of uncertainty. By adopting a functionalist and behavioral perspective, it examines how symbolic, connectionist and hybrid architectures make room for uncertainty. The…

This paper addresses a significant gap in explainable AI: the necessity of interpreting epistemic uncertainty in model explanations. Although current methods mainly focus on explaining predictions, with some including uncertainty, they fail…

Benchmarking the capabilities of AI systems, including Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision Models, typically ignores the impact of uncertainty in the underlying ground truth answers from experts. This ambiguity is not just limited to…