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We study counterfactual regression, which aims to map input features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This is particularly useful for decision-making when adapting to sudden shifts in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Kwangho Kim

Counterfactual explanations play an important role in detecting bias and improving the explainability of data-driven classification models. A counterfactual explanation (CE) is a minimal perturbed data point for which the decision of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Donato Maragno , Jannis Kurtz , Tabea E. Röber , Rob Goedhart , Ş. Ilker Birbil , Dick den Hertog

Accurate estimation of counterfactual outcomes in high-dimensional data is crucial for decision-making and understanding causal relationships and intervention outcomes in various domains, including healthcare, economics, and social…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Jiageng Zhu , Hanchen Xie , Jiazhi Li , Wael Abd-Almageed

We introduce new inference procedures for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for policy evaluation. We recast the causal inference problem as a counterfactual prediction and a structural breaks testing problem. This allows us to…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-26 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wüthrich , Yinchu Zhu

Experimental user studies evaluating the effectiveness of different subtypes of post-hoc explanations for black-box models are largely nonexistent. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate and evaluate how different types of…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Tabea E. Röber , Paul Festor , Rob Goedhart , S. İlker Birbil , Aldo Faisal

Counterfactual explanations have been argued to be one of the most intuitive forms of explanation. They are typically defined as a minimal set of edits on a given data sample that, when applied, changes the output of a model on that sample.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-30 Edmund Dervakos , Konstantinos Thomas , Giorgos Filandrianos , Giorgos Stamou

Learning-based approaches, such as reinforcement and imitation learning are gaining popularity in decision-making for autonomous driving. However, learned policies often fail to generalize and cannot handle novel situations well. Asking and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-13 Patrick Hart , Alois Knoll

Counterfactual explanations are the de facto standard when tasked with interpreting decisions of (opaque) predictive models. Their generation is often subject to technical and domain-specific constraints that aim to maximise their real-life…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-10 Kacper Sokol , Edward Small , Yueqing Xuan

Model interpretability has become an important problem in machine learning (ML) due to the increased effect that algorithmic decisions have on humans. Counterfactual explanations can help users understand not only why ML models make certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-20 Ana Lucic , Harrie Oosterhuis , Hinda Haned , Maarten de Rijke

We discuss the problem of bounding partially identifiable queries, such as counterfactuals, in Pearlian structural causal models. A recently proposed iterated EM scheme yields an inner approximation of those bounds by sampling the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-10-06 David Huber , Yizuo Chen , Alessandro Antonucci , Adnan Darwiche , Marco Zaffalon

We address the open question of counterfactual identification for high-dimensional multivariate outcomes from observational data. Pearl (2000) argues that counterfactuals must be identifiable (i.e., recoverable from the observed data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Ainkaran Santhirasekaram , Ben Glocker

Counterfactual reasoning aims at answering contrary-to-fact questions like ``Would have Alice recovered had she taken aspirin?'' and corresponds to the most fine-grained layer of causation. Critically, while many counterfactual statements…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Lucas de Lara

We formulate a general framework for building structural causal models (SCMs) with deep learning components. The proposed approach employs normalising flows and variational inference to enable tractable inference of exogenous noise…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-26 Nick Pawlowski , Daniel C. Castro , Ben Glocker

Machine learning models are increasingly used in areas such as loan approvals and hiring, yet they often function as black boxes, obscuring their decision-making processes. Transparency is crucial, and individuals need explanations to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-12 Sopam Dasgupta , Joaquín Arias , Elmer Salazar , Gopal Gupta

Currently, there is a significant amount of research being conducted in the field of artificial intelligence to improve the explainability and interpretability of deep learning models. It is found that if end-users understand the reason for…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Niloofar Ranjbar , Saeedeh Momtazi , MohammadMehdi Homayounpour

Counterfactual explanation methods have recently received significant attention for explaining CNN-based image classifiers due to their ability to provide easily understandable explanations that align more closely with human reasoning.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Syed Ali Tariq , Tehseen Zia

A method for counterfactual explanation of machine learning survival models is proposed. One of the difficulties of solving the counterfactual explanation problem is that the classes of examples are implicitly defined through outcomes of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-01 Maxim S. Kovalev , Lev V. Utkin

Counterfactual explanations are an increasingly popular form of post hoc explanation due to their (i) applicability across problem domains, (ii) proposed legal compliance (e.g., with GDPR), and (iii) reliance on the contrastive nature of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-17 Greta Warren , Mark T. Keane , Christophe Gueret , Eoin Delaney

We present counterfactual planning as a design approach for creating a range of safety mechanisms that can be applied in hypothetical future AI systems which have Artificial General Intelligence. The key step in counterfactual planning is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-02 Koen Holtman

Heterogeneity in medical data, e.g., from data collected at different sites and with different protocols in a clinical study, is a fundamental hurdle for accurate prediction using machine learning models, as such models often fail to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-13 Rongguang Wang , Pratik Chaudhari , Christos Davatzikos
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