Related papers: Empirical Determination of Baseball Eras: Multivar…
We present a tractable framework for detecting changes in performance metrics and apply these methods to Major League Baseball (MLB) batting and pitching data from the 2023 and 2024 seasons. We propose a changepoint detection algorithm that…
In sports, an aging curve depicts the relationship between average performance and age in athletes' careers. This paper investigates the aging curves for offensive players in Major League Baseball. We study this problem in a missing data…
Numerous statistics have been proposed for the measure of offensive ability in major league baseball. While some of these measures may offer moderate predictive power in certain situations, it is unclear which simple offensive metrics are…
This paper addresses the issue of detecting change-points in multivariate time series. The proposed approach differs from existing counterparts by making only weak assumptions on both the change-points structure across series, and the…
A new methodological framework suitable for era-adjusting baseball statistics is developed in this article. Within this methodological framework specific models are motivated. We call these models Full House Models. Full House Models work…
Change points in real-world systems mark significant regime shifts in system dynamics, possibly triggered by exogenous or endogenous factors. These points define regimes for the time evolution of the system and are crucial for understanding…
From 2020 to 2023, Major League Baseball changed rules affecting team composition, player positioning, and game time. Understanding the effects of these rules is crucial for leagues, teams, players, and other relevant parties to assess…
The use of statistical modeling in baseball has received substantial attention recently in both the media and academic community. We focus on a relatively under-explored topic: the use of statistical models for the analysis of fielding…
Understanding the principles of real-world biological multi-agent behaviors is a current challenge in various scientific and engineering fields. The rules regarding the real-world biological multi-agent behaviors such as team sports are…
We have developed a sophisticated statistical model for predicting the hitting performance of Major League baseball players. The Bayesian paradigm provides a principled method for balancing past performance with crucial covariates, such as…
Batting average is one of the principle performance measures for an individual baseball player. It is natural to statistically model this as a binomial-variable proportion, with a given (observed) number of qualifying attempts (called…
Major League Baseball (MLB) has a storied history of using statistics to better understand and discuss the game of baseball, with an entire discipline of statistics dedicated to the craft, known as sabermetrics. At their core, all…
This work delves into presenting a probabilistic method for analyzing linear process data with weakly dependent innovations, focusing on detecting change-points in the mean and estimating its spectral density. We develop a test for…
Time series, as frequently the case in neuroscience, are rarely stationary, but often exhibit abrupt changes due to attractor transitions or bifurcations in the dynamical systems producing them. A plethora of methods for detecting such…
Statistical analysis is a major aspect of baseball, from player averages to historical benchmarks and records. Much of baseball fanfare is based around players exceeding the norm, some in a single game and others over a long career. Career…
The paper studies the problem of detecting and locating change points in multivariate time-evolving data. The problem has a long history in statistics and signal processing and various algorithms have been developed primarily for simple…
Can one understand the statistics of wins and losses of baseball teams? Are their consecutive-game winning and losing streaks self-reinforcing or can they be described statistically? We apply the Bradley-Terry model, which incorporates the…
Baseball is a game of strategic decisions including bullpen usage, pinch-hitting and intentional walks. Managers must adjust their strategies based on the changing state of the game in order to give their team the best chance of winning. In…
In the high-stakes world of baseball, every nuance of a pitcher's mechanics holds the key to maximizing performance and minimizing runs. Traditional analysis methods often rely on pre-recorded offline numerical data, hindering their…
As a dedicated follower of sports statistics and with the MLB season beginning in late March, I set out to predict how many wins each team would accumulate by the end of the 162 game season. The goal was to build a simulation framework…