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Natural and anthropogenic disasters frequently affect both the supply and demand side of an economy. A striking recent example is the Covid-19 pandemic which has created severe disruptions to economic output in most countries. These direct…
This paper develops a House Price-at-Risk framework to examine how housing subsidies, credit conditions, and supply factors influence the distribution of house price growth in Hungary. Using quantile regression with adaptive LASSO variable…
We study the cluster dynamics of multichannel (multivariate) time series by representing their correlations as time-dependent networks and investigating the evolution of network communities. We employ a node-centric approach that allows us…
Why do capitalist economies recurrently generate crises whose severity is disproportionate to the size of the triggering shock? This paper proposes a structural answer grounded in the evolutionary geometry of production networks. As…
We investigate the dynamics of correlations present between pairs of industry indices of US stocks traded in US markets by studying correlation based networks and spectral properties of the correlation matrix. The study is performed by…
The proposed model is aimed to reveal important patterns in the behavior of a simplified financial system. The patterns could be detected as regular cycles consisting of debt bubbles and crises. Financial cycles have a well defined…
Assessing the stability of economic systems is a fundamental research focus in economics, that has become increasingly interdisciplinary in the currently troubled economic situation. In particular, much attention has been devoted to the…
The 2022 rise in U.S. mortgage rates increased relocation costs for homeowners with low-rate mortgages. This cost varies across destinations because each draws workers from a different mix of labor markets. We build an in-migration…
A large body of literature in economics and political science examines the impact of democracy and political freedoms on various outcomes using cross-country comparisons. This paper explores the possibility that any positive impact of…
We study a simple, solvable model that allows us to investigate effects of credit contagion on the default probability of individual firms, in both portfolios of firms and on an economy wide scale. While the effect of interactions may be…
Interbank lending and borrowing occur when financial institutions seek to settle and refinance their mutual positions over time and circumstances. This interactive process involves money creation at the aggregate level. Coordination…
I analyze the risk-coping strategies of factory-worker households in early twentieth-century Tokyo. I digitized a unique daily longitudinal household budget survey conducted in Tsukishima, a representative manufacturing area, to examine how…
Geographic dispersion of depositors, borrowers, and banks may prevent funding from flowing to high loan demand areas, limiting credit access. Using bank-county-year level data, we provide evidence of the geographic imbalance of deposits and…
This paper studies the transmission of US monetary policy shocks into Emerging Markets emphasizing the role of investment and financial heterogeneity. First, we use a panel SVAR model to show that a US interest tightening leads to a…
We develop a deep learning model of multi-period mortgage risk and use it to analyze an unprecedented dataset of origination and monthly performance records for over 120 million mortgages originated across the US between 1995 and 2014. Our…
Understanding consumption dynamics and its impact on the whole economy and welfare within the present economic crisis is not an easy task. Indeed the level of consumer demand for different goods varies with the prices, consumer incomes and…
We consider a possibility of socioeconomic collapse caused by the spread of epidemic in a basic dynamical model with negative feedback between the infected population size and a formal collective economic resource. The epidemic-resource…
Credit risk management in Italy is characterized, in the period June 2008 to June 2012, by frequent (frequency=0.5 cycles per year) and intense (peak amplitude: mean=39.2 billion Euros, s.e.=2.83 billion Euros) quarterly contractions and…
Countries participate in global value chains by engaging in backward and forward transactions connecting multiple geographically dispersed production stages. Inspired by network theory, we model global trade as a multilayer network and…
Throughout history, many countries have repeatedly experienced large swings in asset prices, which are usually accompanied by large fluctuations in macroeconomic activity. One of the characteristics of the period before major economic…