Related papers: Markov Switching Multiple-equation Tensor Regressi…

We introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model for asset returns that imposes no restrictions to the structure of the volatility matrix and treats all its elements as functions of latent stochastic processes. When the number of…

We present a novel Bayesian inference tool that uses a neural network to parameterise efficient Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) proposals. The target distribution is first transformed into a diagonal, unit variance Gaussian by a series of…

Real-world multichannel time series prediction faces growing demands for efficiency across edge and cloud environments, making channel compression a timely and essential problem. Motivated by the success of Multiple-Input Multiple-Output…

We propose a latent topic model with a Markovian transition for process data, which consist of time-stamped events recorded in a log file. Such data are becoming more widely available in computer-based educational assessment with complex…

In this paper we present a framework for risk-averse model predictive control (MPC) of linear systems affected by multiplicative uncertainty. Our key innovation is to consider time-consistent, dynamic risk metrics as objective functions to…

A regime-switching multivariate time series model which is closed under margins is built. The model imposes a restriction on all lower-dimensional sub-processes to follow a regime-switching process sharing the same latent regime sequence…

We propose a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to speed up computations for datasets with many observations. A key feature of our approach is the use of the highly efficient difference estimator from the survey sampling…

There has been considerable recent interest in Bayesian modeling of high-dimensional networks via latent space approaches. When the number of nodes increases, estimation based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo can be extremely slow and show poor…

Many real-world problems encountered in several disciplines deal with the modeling of time-series containing different underlying dynamical regimes, for which probabilistic approaches are very often employed. In this paper we describe…

The multinomial probit (MNP) model is widely used to analyze categorical outcomes due to its ability to capture flexible substitution patterns among alternatives. Conventional likelihood based and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimators…

Sequential optimization methods are often confronted with the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional spaces. Current approaches under the Gaussian process framework are still burdened by the computational complexity of tracking…

We develop a novel class of MCMC algorithms based on a stochastized Nesterov scheme. With an appropriate addition of noise, the result is a time-inhomogeneous underdamped Langevin equation, which we prove emits a specified target…

Although the Bayesian paradigm offers a formal framework for estimating the entire probability distribution over uncertain parameters, its online implementation can be challenging due to high computational costs. We suggest the Adaptive…

This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…

Tensor structured Markov chains are part of stochastic models of many practical applications, e.g., in the description of complex production or telephone networks. The most interesting question in Markov chain models is the determination of…

Gaussian processes are valuable tools for non-parametric modelling, where typically an assumption of stationarity is employed. While removing this assumption can improve prediction, fitting such models is challenging. In this work,…

We propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on Gibbs sampling with parallel tempering to solve nonlinear optimal control problems. The algorithm is applicable to nonlinear systems with dynamics that can be approximately…

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

A Markov state model of the dynamics of a protein-like chain immersed in an implicit hard sphere solvent is derived from first principles for a system of monomers that interact via discontinuous potentials designed to account for local…

An irreversible Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm with skew detailed balance conditions originally proposed by Turitsyn et al. is extended to general discrete systems on the basis of the Metropolis-Hastings scheme. To evaluate the…