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Efficiently accessing the information contained in non-linear and high dimensional probability distributions remains a core challenge in modern statistics. Traditionally, estimators that go beyond point estimates are either categorized as…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-06 Philipp Frank , Reimar Leike , Torsten A. Enßlin

We propose stepwise variational inference (VI) with vine copulas: a universal VI procedure that combines vine copulas with a novel stepwise estimation procedure of the variational parameters. Vine copulas consist of a nested sequence of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-25 Elisabeth Griesbauer , Leiv Rønneberg , Arnoldo Frigessi , Claudia Czado , Ingrid Hobæk Haff

The Sequential Fully Implicit (SFI) method was proposed to simulate coupled immiscible multiphase fluid flow in porous media. Later, it was extended to the black-oil model, whereby the gas component is allowed to dissolve in the oil phase.…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-08-01 A. Moncorge , H. A. Tchelepi , P. Jenny

Probabilistic modeling is iterative. A scientist posits a simple model, fits it to her data, refines it according to her analysis, and repeats. However, fitting complex models to large data is a bottleneck in this process. Deriving…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-03 Alp Kucukelbir , Dustin Tran , Rajesh Ranganath , Andrew Gelman , David M. Blei

We develop an optimization algorithm suitable for Bayesian learning in complex models. Our approach relies on natural gradient updates within a general black-box framework for efficient training with limited model-specific derivations. It…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Martin Magris , Mostafa Shabani , Alexandros Iosifidis

Given some observed data and a probabilistic generative model, Bayesian inference aims at obtaining the distribution of a model's latent parameters that could have yielded the data. This task is challenging for large population studies…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-13 Louis Rouillard , Thomas Moreau , Demian Wassermann

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is a method to perform inference on a variety of complex scientific models with challenging inference (inverse) problems. Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) aims to efficiently use experimental…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-13 Vincent D. Zaballa , Elliot E. Hui

This paper contributes to the recent investigations of Lagrangian methods based on Voronoi meshes. The aim is to design a new conservative numerical scheme that can simulate complex flows and multi-phase problems with more accuracy than SPH…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-10-21 Ondřej Kincl , Ilya Peshkov , Walter Boscheri

Bayesian (deep) neural networks (BNN) are often more attractive than the vanilla point-estimate deep learning in various aspects including uncertainty quantification, robustness to noise, resistance to overfitting, and more. The variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Minyoung Kim

This paper introduces the $f$-divergence variational inference ($f$-VI) that generalizes variational inference to all $f$-divergences. Initiated from minimizing a crafty surrogate $f$-divergence that shares the statistical consistency with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-06 Neng Wan , Dapeng Li , Naira Hovakimyan

The implicit particle filter is a sequential Monte Carlo method for data assimilation that guides the particles to the high-probability regions via a sequence of steps that includes minimizations. We present a new and more general…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-02-01 Ethan Atkins , Matthias Morzfeld , Alexandre J. Chorin

When a statistical model $\{P_{\theta} : \theta \in \Theta\}$ lacks analytically tractable likelihoods, parametric statistical inference based on data generated from an unknown underlying distribution $P$ can still be performed as long as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Peter Matthew Jacobs , Lekha Patel , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

Variational inference (VI) is a specific type of approximate Bayesian inference that approximates an intractable posterior distribution with a tractable one. VI casts the inference problem as an optimization problem, more specifically, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Felix Leibfried

Bayesian inference has been broadly applied to statistical network analysis, but suffers from the expensive computational costs due to the nature of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. This paper proposes a novel and…

Computation · Statistics 2025-09-03 Dingbo Wu , Fangzheng Xie

Statistical inference methods are fundamentally important in machine learning. Most state-of-the-art inference algorithms are variants of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or variational inference (VI). However, both methods struggle with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-17 Yichuan Zhang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is emerging as a new statistical paradigm for addressing complex scientific inference problems. By leveraging the representational power of deep neural networks, SBI can extract the most informative…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-10-17 Huifang Lyu , James Alvey , Noemi Anau Montel , Mauro Pieroni , Christoph Weniger

Deep learning has revolutionized the last decade, being at the forefront of extraordinary advances in a wide range of tasks including computer vision, natural language processing, and reinforcement learning, to name but a few. However, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Sebastian W. Ober

We introduce Pawsterior, a variational flow-matching framework for improved and extended simulation-based inference (SBI). Many SBI problems involve posteriors constrained by structured domains, such as bounded physical parameters or hybrid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Jorge Carrasco-Pollo , Floor Eijkelboom , Jan-Willem van de Meent

Variational Inference is a powerful tool in the Bayesian modeling toolkit, however, its effectiveness is determined by the expressivity of the utilized variational distributions in terms of their ability to match the true posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-10 Artem Sobolev , Dmitry Vetrov

We propose a novel deterministic sampling method to approximate a target distribution $\rho^*$ by minimizing the kernel discrepancy, also known as the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). By employing the general \emph{energetic variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-12 Yindong Chen , Yiwei Wang , Lulu Kang , Chun Liu