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Time series forecasting, which aims to predict future values based on historical data, has garnered significant attention due to its broad range of applications. However, real-world time series often exhibit complex non-uniform distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Yanru Sun , Zongxia Xie , Emadeldeen Eldele , Dongyue Chen , Qinghua Hu , Min Wu

Time Series Forecasting plays a crucial role in various fields such as industrial equipment maintenance, meteorology, energy consumption, traffic flow and financial investment. However, despite their considerable advantages over traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Ruiqi Li , Maowei Jiang , Kai Wang , Kaiduo Feng , Quangao Liu , Yue Sun , Xiufang Zhou

Periodic time series (PTS) forecasting plays a crucial role in a variety of industries to foster critical tasks, such as early warning, pre-planning, resource scheduling, etc. However, the complicated dependencies of the PTS signal on its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-16 Wei Fan , Shun Zheng , Xiaohan Yi , Wei Cao , Yanjie Fu , Jiang Bian , Tie-Yan Liu

In this paper we propose a scalable version of a state-of-the-art deterministic time-invariant feature extraction approach based on consecutive changes of basis and nonlinearities, namely, the scattering network. The first focus of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-20 Randall Balestriero , Herve Glotin

Time series (TS) forecasting has been an unprecedentedly popular problem in recent years, with ubiquitous applications in both scientific and business fields. Various approaches have been introduced to time series analysis, including both…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-20 Ziyou Guo , Yan Sun , Tieru Wu

Recent innovations in diffusion probabilistic models have paved the way for significant progress in image, text and audio generation, leading to their applications in generative time series forecasting. However, leveraging such abilities to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-07 Yuansan Liu , Sudanthi Wijewickrema , Dongting Hu , Christofer Bester , Stephen O'Leary , James Bailey

Distribution-free prediction sets play a pivotal role in uncertainty quantification for complex statistical models. Their validity hinges on reliable calibration data, which may not be readily available as real-world environments often…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-11 Elise Han , Chengpiao Huang , Kaizheng Wang

Real-world time-series datasets often violate the assumptions of standard supervised learning for forecasting -- their distributions evolve over time, rendering the conventional training and model selection procedures suboptimal. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-27 Sercan O. Arik , Nathanael C. Yoder , Tomas Pfister

Probabilistic forecasting is not only a way to add more information to a prediction of the future, but it also builds on weaknesses in point prediction. Sudden changes in a time series can still be captured by a cumulative distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Niklas Erdmann , Lars Bentsen , Roy Stenbro , Heine Nygard Riise , Narada Dilp Warakagoda , Paal E. Engelstad

Standard direct forecasting models typically rely on point-wise objectives such as Mean Squared Error, which fail to capture the complex spatio-temporal dependencies inherent in graph-structured signals. While recent frequency-domain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Zepu Wang , Bowen Liao , Jeff , Ban

Multivariate time-series forecasting holds immense value across diverse applications, requiring methods to effectively capture complex temporal and inter-variable dynamics. A key challenge lies in uncovering the intrinsic patterns that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Liang Yu , Lai Tu , Xiang Bai

Deploying deep models in real-world scenarios remains challenging due to significant performance drops under distribution shifts between training and deployment environments. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) has recently emerged as a promising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Zixian Su , Jingwei Guo , Xi Yang , Qiufeng Wang , Kaizhu Huang

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative frameworks by progressively adding noise to data through a forward process and then reversing this process to generate realistic samples. While these models have achieved strong…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Xingzhuo Guo , Yu Zhang , Baixu Chen , Haoran Xu , Jianmin Wang , Mingsheng Long

Full Waveform Inversion (FWI) is a powerful technique for estimating high-resolution subsurface velocity models by minimizing the discrepancy between modeled and observed seismic data. However, the oscillatory nature of seismic waveforms…

Deep neural networks often produce overconfident predictions, undermining their reliability in safety-critical applications. This miscalibration is further exacerbated under distribution shift, where test data deviates from the training…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Yilin Zhang , Cai Xu , You Wu , Ziyu Guan , Wei Zhao

Self-supervised learning has garnered increasing attention in time series analysis for benefiting various downstream tasks and reducing reliance on labeled data. Despite its effectiveness, existing methods often struggle to comprehensively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Daoyu Wang , Mingyue Cheng , Zhiding Liu , Qi Liu

We present a new adaptive algorithm for learning discrete distributions under distribution drift. In this setting, we observe a sequence of independent samples from a discrete distribution that is changing over time, and the goal is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Alessio Mazzetto

Nonstationary time series forecasting suffers from the distribution shift issue due to the different distributions that produce the training and test data. Existing methods attempt to alleviate the dependence by, e.g., removing low-order…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Xihao Piao , Zheng Chen , Lingwei Zhu , Yushun Dong , Yasuko Matsubara , Yasushi Sakurai

Despite their recent success, deep neural networks continue to perform poorly when they encounter distribution shifts at test time. Many recently proposed approaches try to counter this by aligning the model to the new distribution prior to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-09-26 Samarth Sinha , Peter Gehler , Francesco Locatello , Bernt Schiele

In Internet of things (IoT), data is continuously recorded from different data sources and devices can suffer faults in their embedded electronics, thus leading to a high-dimensional data sets and concept drift events. Therefore, methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-22 Hugo Vinicius Bitencourt , Frederico Gadelha Guimarães