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We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-10 Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel Candès

Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Bror Hultberg , Dave Zachariah , Antônio H. Ribeiro

We consider the problem of detecting OoD(Out-of-Distribution) input data when using deep neural networks, and we propose a simple yet effective way to improve the robustness of several popular OoD detection methods against label shift. Our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-04 Matteo Guarrera , Baihong Jin , Tung-Wei Lin , Maria Zuluaga , Yuxin Chen , Alberto Sangiovanni-Vincentelli

Trajectory prediction models often fail in real-world automated driving due to distributional shifts between training and test conditions. Such distributional shifts, whether behavioural or environmental, pose a critical risk by causing the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Michele De Vita , Julian Wiederer , Vasileios Belagiannis

Human trust in automation plays an essential role in interactions between humans and automation. While a lack of trust can lead to a human's disuse of automation, over-trust can result in a human trusting a faulty autonomous system which…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-04-17 Kumar Akash , Griffon McMahon , Tahira Reid , Neera Jain

The primary focus of autonomous driving research is to improve driving accuracy. While great progress has been made, state-of-the-art algorithms still fail at times. Such failures may have catastrophic consequences. It therefore is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-05-07 Simon Hecker , Dengxin Dai , Luc Van Gool

Distribution shifts introduce uncertainty that undermines the robustness and generalization capabilities of machine learning models. While conventional wisdom suggests that learning causal-invariant representations enhances robustness to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Abbavaram Gowtham Reddy , Celia Rubio-Madrigal , Rebekka Burkholz , Krikamol Muandet

Machine learning society has witnessed the emergence of a myriad of Out-of-Distribution (OoD) algorithms, which address the distribution shift between the training and the testing distribution by searching for a unified predictor or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Runpeng Yu , Songhua Liu , Xingyi Yang , Xinchao Wang

Given an algorithmic predictor that is accurate on some source population consisting of strategic human decision subjects, will it remain accurate if the population respond to it? In our setting, an agent or a user corresponds to a sample…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Yatong Chen , Zeyu Tang , Kun Zhang , Yang Liu

We derive an (almost) guaranteed upper bound on the error of deep neural networks under distribution shift using unlabeled test data. Prior methods either give bounds that are vacuous in practice or give estimates that are accurate on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-02 Elan Rosenfeld , Saurabh Garg

Transfer learning is essential when sufficient data comes from the source domain, with scarce labeled data from the target domain. We develop estimators that achieve minimax linear risk for linear regression problems under distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-24 Qi Lei , Wei Hu , Jason D. Lee

Anomaly detection (AD) is a crucial machine learning task that aims to learn patterns from a set of normal training samples to identify abnormal samples in test data. Most existing AD studies assume that the training and test data are drawn…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Tri Cao , Jiawen Zhu , Guansong Pang

Over the past decades, network systems have surged in significance, driven by merging technological advancements. These systems play pivotal roles in diverse applications ranging from autonomous driving to smart grids, yet they confront…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-20 Gang Wang , Wenjie Liu , Yifei Li , Xin Wang , Jian Sun , Jie Chen

With the increasing complexity of computing systems, complete hardware reliability can no longer be guaranteed. We need, however, to ensure overall system reliability. One of the most important features of artificial neural networks is…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2015-10-07 Anton Kulakov , Mark Zwolinski , Jeff Reeve

We consider the problem of hypothesis testing for discrete distributions. In the standard model, where we have sample access to an underlying distribution $p$, extensive research has established optimal bounds for uniformity testing,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Maryam Aliakbarpour , Piotr Indyk , Ronitt Rubinfeld , Sandeep Silwal

In this paper, we show how uncertainty estimation can be leveraged to enable safety critical image segmentation in autonomous driving, by triggering a fallback behavior if a target accuracy cannot be guaranteed. We introduce a new…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Victor Besnier , David Picard , Alexandre Briot

Existing digital distribution network models, like those in the databases of network utilities, are known to contain erroneous or untrustworthy information. This can compromise the effectiveness of physics-based engineering simulations and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-08-02 Frederik Geth , Marta Vanin , Dirk Van Hertem

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-08 Ryan J. Tibshirani , Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas

Estimating the test performance of a model, possibly under distribution shift, without having access to the ground-truth labels is a challenging, yet very important problem for the safe deployment of machine learning algorithms in the wild.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Renchunzi Xie , Ambroise Odonnat , Vasilii Feofanov , Ievgen Redko , Jianfeng Zhang , Bo An

Simulation data can be utilized to extend real-world driving data in order to cover edge cases, such as vehicle accidents. The importance of handling edge cases can be observed in the high societal costs in handling car accidents, as well…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-07-24 Shivam Akhauri , Laura Zheng , Ming Lin
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