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In recent years, large-scale language models (LLMs) have gained attention for their impressive text generation capabilities. However, these models often face the challenge of "hallucination," which undermines their reliability. In this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Yuchen Yang , Houqiang Li , Yanfeng Wang , Yu Wang

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to hallucination, particularly in long-form generations. A promising direction to mitigate hallucination is to teach LLMs to express uncertainty explicitly when they lack sufficient knowledge. However,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Ruihan Yang , Caiqi Zhang , Zhisong Zhang , Xinting Huang , Dong Yu , Nigel Collier , Deqing Yang

Large Language Models (LLMs) have gained significant popularity in recent years for their ability to answer questions in various fields. However, these models have a tendency to "hallucinate" their responses, making it challenging to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-25 Elizaveta Reganova , Peter Steinbach

Vision-Language Models like GPT-4, LLaVA, and CogVLM have surged in popularity recently due to their impressive performance in several vision-language tasks. Current evaluation methods, however, overlook an essential component: uncertainty,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Vasily Kostumov , Bulat Nutfullin , Oleg Pilipenko , Eugene Ilyushin

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Kajetan Schweighofer , Lukas Aichberger , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Günter Klambauer , Sepp Hochreiter

Uncertainty quantification is an important and challenging problem in deep learning. Previous methods rely on dropout layers which are not present in modern deep architectures or batch normalization which is sensitive to batch sizes. In…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-10 Lukasz Wandzik , Raul Vicente Garcia , Jörg Krüger

Hallucination in large language models (LLMs) can be detected by assessing the uncertainty of model outputs, typically measured using entropy. Semantic entropy (SE) enhances traditional entropy estimation by quantifying uncertainty at the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Dang Nguyen , Ali Payani , Baharan Mirzasoleiman

Deep learning has been shown to be highly effective for automatic modulation classification (AMC), which is a pivotal technology for next-generation cognitive communications. Yet, existing deep learning methods for AMC often lack robust…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-03 Huian Yang , Rajeev Sahay

Research in uncertainty quantification (UQ) for large language models (LLMs) is increasingly important towards guaranteeing the reliability of this groundbreaking technology. We explore the integration of LLM UQ methods in argumentative…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Kevin Zhou , Adam Dejl , Gabriel Freedman , Lihu Chen , Antonio Rago , Francesca Toni

Large language models (LLMs) often behave inconsistently across inputs, indicating uncertainty and motivating the need for its quantification in high-stakes settings. Prior work on calibration and uncertainty quantification often focuses on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-08 Maya Kruse , Majid Afshar , Saksham Khatwani , Anoop Mayampurath , Guanhua Chen , Yanjun Gao

Decoding strategies manipulate the probability distribution underlying the output of a language model and can therefore affect both generation quality and its uncertainty. In this study, we investigate the impact of decoding strategies on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Wataru Hashimoto , Hidetaka Kamigaito , Taro Watanabe

Large Language Diffusion Models (LLDMs) are emerging as an alternative to autoregressive models, offering faster inference through higher parallelism. Similar to autoregressive LLMs, they remain prone to hallucinations, making reliable…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Artem Vazhentsev , Vladislav Smirnov , David Li , Maxim Panov , Timothy Baldwin , Artem Shelmanov

Comprehensive evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) is an open research problem. Existing evaluations rely on deterministic point estimates generated via greedy decoding. However, we find that deterministic evaluations fail to capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Yan Scholten , Stephan Günnemann , Leo Schwinn

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in various natural language generation (NLG) tasks. Previous studies suggest that LLMs' generation process involves uncertainty. However, existing approaches to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-06 Yu-Hsiang Wang , Andrew Bai , Che-Ping Tsai , Cho-Jui Hsieh

This paper studies the utility of techniques within uncertainty quantification, namely spectral projection and polynomial chaos expansion, in reducing sampling needs for characterizing acoustic metamaterial dispersion band responses given…

Statistical inference in high dimensional settings has recently attracted enormous attention within the literature. However, most published work focuses on the parametric linear regression problem. This paper considers an important…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-14 Qi Gao , Randy C. S. Lai , Thomas C. M. Lee , Yao Li

While past works have shown how uncertainty quantification can be applied to large language model (LLM) outputs, the question of whether resulting uncertainty guarantees still hold within sub-groupings of data remains open. In our work,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Terrance Liu , Zhiwei Steven Wu

When does a large language model (LLM) know what it does not know? Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides measures of uncertainty, such as an estimate of the confidence in an LLM's generated output, and is therefore increasingly…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Debarun Bhattacharjya , Balaji Ganesan , Junkyu Lee , Radu Marinescu , Katsiaryna Mirylenka , Michael Glass , Xiao Shou

We study the convex-hull problem in a probabilistic setting, motivated by the need to handle data uncertainty inherent in many applications, including sensor databases, location-based services and computer vision. In our framework, the…

Computational Geometry · Computer Science 2014-06-26 Pankaj K. Agarwal , Sariel Har-Peled , Subhash Suri , Hakan Yildiz , Wuzhou Zhang