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Finding cause-effect relationships is of key importance in science. Causal discovery aims to recover a graph from data that succinctly describes these cause-effect relationships. However, current methods face several challenges, especially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Jan Marco Ruiz de Vargas , Kirtan Padh , Niki Kilbertus

Causal discovery outputs a causal structure, represented by a graph, from observed data. For time series data, there is a variety of methods, however, it is difficult to evaluate these on real data as realistic use cases very rarely come…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-31 Søren Wengel Mogensen , Karin Rathsman , Per Nilsson

Causal discovery and causal effect estimation are two fundamental tasks in causal inference. While many methods have been developed for each task individually, statistical challenges arise when applying these methods jointly: estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-21 Paula Gradu , Tijana Zrnic , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

Recent years have seen many advances in methods for causal structure learning from data. The empirical assessment of such methods, however, is much less developed. Motivated by this gap, we pose the following question: how can one assess,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-30 Marco F. Eigenmann , Sach Mukherjee , Marloes H. Maathuis

This paper introduces a new causal structure learning method for nonstationary time series data, a common data type found in fields such as finance, economics, healthcare, and environmental science. Our work builds upon the constraint-based…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-10 Agathe Sadeghi , Achintya Gopal , Mohammad Fesanghary

Causal discovery with latent variables is a crucial but challenging task. Despite the emergence of numerous methods aimed at addressing this challenge, they are not fully identified to the structure that two observed variables are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-20 Wei Chen , Zhiyi Huang , Ruichu Cai , Zhifeng Hao , Kun Zhang

This paper proposes two methods for causal additive models with unobserved variables (CAM-UV). CAM-UV assumes that the causal functions take the form of generalized additive models and that latent confounders are present. First, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-19 Takashi Nicholas Maeda , Shohei Shimizu

Recovering the structure of causal graphical models from observational data is an essential yet challenging task for causal discovery in scientific scenarios. Domain-specific causal discovery usually relies on expert validation or prior…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Taiyu Ban , Lyuzhou Chen , Derui Lyu , Xiangyu Wang , Qinrui Zhu , Qiang Tu , Huanhuan Chen

Learning causal relationships from time series data is an important but challenging problem. Existing synthetic datasets often contain hidden artifacts that can be exploited by causal discovery methods, reducing their usefulness for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Xiaoyu He , Petr Ryšavý , Jakub Mareček

Causal systems often exhibit variations of the underlying causal mechanisms between the variables of the system. Often, these changes are driven by different environments or internal states in which the system operates, and we refer to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Wiebke Günther , Oana-Iuliana Popescu , Martin Rabel , Urmi Ninad , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

On time-series data, most causal discovery methods fit a new model whenever they encounter samples from a new underlying causal graph. However, these samples often share relevant information which is lost when following this approach.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Sindy Löwe , David Madras , Richard Zemel , Max Welling

Causal discovery is at the core of human cognition. It enables us to reason about the environment and make counterfactual predictions about unseen scenarios that can vastly differ from our previous experiences. We consider the task of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Yunzhu Li , Antonio Torralba , Animashree Anandkumar , Dieter Fox , Animesh Garg

Causal discovery problems use a set of observations to deduce causality between variables in the real world, typically to answer questions about biological or physical systems. These observations are often recorded at regular time…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-24 Kurt Butler , Damian Machlanski , Panagiotis Dimitrakopoulos , Sotirios A. Tsaftaris

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso

Healthcare artificial intelligence systems often degrade in performance when deployed across institutions, with documented performance drops and perpetuation of discriminatory patterns embedded in data. This brittleness comes, in part, from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Munib Mesinovic , Max Buhlan , Tingting Zhu

Data-driven astrophysics currently relies on the detection and characterisation of correlations between objects' properties, which are then used to test physical theories that make predictions for them. This process fails to utilise…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2026-03-17 Harry Desmond , Joseph Ramsey

Discovering the causal effect of a decision is critical to nearly all forms of decision-making. In particular, it is a key quantity in drug development, in crafting government policy, and when implementing a real-world machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-04 Limor Gultchin , Matt J. Kusner , Varun Kanade , Ricardo Silva

Finding an effective medical treatment often requires a search by trial and error. Making this search more efficient by minimizing the number of unnecessary trials could lower both costs and patient suffering. We formalize this problem as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-18 Samuel Håkansson , Viktor Lindblom , Omer Gottesman , Fredrik D. Johansson

Many questions in science center around the fundamental problem of understanding causal relationships. However, most constraint-based causal discovery algorithms, including the well-celebrated PC algorithm, often incur an exponential number…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Kirankumar Shiragur , Jiaqi Zhang , Caroline Uhler

Temporal causal discovery is a crucial task aimed at uncovering the causal relations within time series data. The latest temporal causal discovery methods usually train deep learning models on prediction tasks to uncover the causality…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Lingbai Kong , Wengen Li , Hanchen Yang , Yichao Zhang , Jihong Guan , Shuigeng Zhou