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Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods are a set of tools providing posterior distributions on the output of numerical methods. The use of these methods is usually motivated by the fact that they can represent our uncertainty due to…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-01 Xiaoyue Xi , François-Xavier Briol , Mark Girolami

We investigate the utility to computational Bayesian analyses of a particular family of recursive marginal likelihood estimators characterized by the (equivalent) algorithms known as "biased sampling" or "reverse logistic regression" in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-16 Ewan Cameron , Anthony Pettitt

Dirichlet process (DP) mixture models provide a flexible Bayesian framework for density estimation. Unfortunately, their flexibility comes at a cost: inference in DP mixture models is computationally expensive, even when conjugate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2009-07-13 Hal Daumé

Populations of interest are often hidden from data for a variety of reasons, though their magnitude remains important in determining resource allocation and appropriate policy. One popular approach to population size estimation, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 Mallory J Flynn , Paul Gustafson

We study the application of a Bayesian method to extract relevant information from data for the case of a signal consisting of two or more decaying particles and its background. The method takes advantage of the dependence that exists in…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2023-06-06 Ezequiel Alvarez

Establishing that a set of population-splitting events occurred at the same time can be a potentially persuasive argument that a common process affected the populations. Oaks et al. (2013) assessed the ability of an approximate-Bayesian…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-11-26 Jamie R. Oaks , Charles W. Linkem , Jeet Sukumaran

Balancing the distributions of the confounders across the exposure levels in an observational study through matching or weighting is an accepted method to control for confounding due to these variables when estimating the association…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-24 Farhad Pishgar , Noah Greifer , Clémence Leyrat , Elizabeth Stuart

Bayesian A/B testing investigates metric changes using the joint posterior distribution of two (or more) experimentally-derived datasets. The construction of said joint posterior is often a time-consuming process requiring specialized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Dustin Hayden , Thomas Armitage

Bayesian hypothesis testing is re-examined from the perspective of an a priori assessment of the test statistic distribution under the alternative. By assessing the distribution of an observable test statistic, rather than prior parameter…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-28 Hedibert F. Lopes , Nicholas G. Polson

When computer codes are used for modeling complex physical systems, their unknown parameters are tuned by calibration techniques. A discrepancy function may be added to the computer code in order to capture its discrepancy with the real…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-11 Kaniav Kamary , Merlin Keller , Pierre Barbillon , Cédric Gœury , Éric Parent

This paper deals with measuring the Bayesian robustness of classes of contaminated priors. Two different classes of priors in the neighborhood of the elicited prior are considered. The first one is the well-known $\epsilon$-contaminated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-18 Luai Al-Labadi , Ce Wang

An efficient algorithm is proposed for Bayesian model calibration, which is commonly used to estimate the model parameters of non-linear, computationally expensive models using measurement data. The approach is based on Bayesian statistics:…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-11-06 L. M. M. van den Bos , B. Sanderse , W. A. A. M. Bierbooms , G. J. W. van Bussel

We consider statistical procedures for hypothesis testing of real valued functionals of matched pairs with missing values. In order to improve the accuracy of existing methods, we propose a novel multiplication combination procedure.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-29 Lubna Amro , Frank Konietschke , Markus Pauly

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

External data borrowing in clinical trial designs has increased in recent years. This is accomplished in the Bayesian framework by specifying informative prior distributions. To mitigate the impact of potential inconsistency (bias) between…

This work was motivated by a twin study with the goal of assessing the genetic control of immune traits. We propose a mixture bivariate distribution to model twin data where the underlying order within a pair is unclear. Though estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-21 Zonghui Hu , Pengfei Li , Dean Follmann , Jing Qin

We introduce two kinds of risk measures with respect to some reference probability measure, which both allow for a certain order structure and domination property. Analyzing their relation to each other leads to the question when a certain…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-04-15 Christa Cuchiero , Guido Gazzani , Irene Klein

In the realm of statistical learning, the increasing volume of accessible data and increasing model complexity necessitate robust methodologies. This paper explores two branches of robust Bayesian methods in response to this trend. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-02 Masahiro Tanaka

Statistical modelling in the presence of data organized in groups is a crucial task in Bayesian statistics. The present paper conceives a mixture model based on a novel family of Bayesian priors designed for multilevel data and obtained by…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-01 Alessandro Colombi , Raffaele Argiento , Federico Camerlenghi , Lucia Paci

Bayesian statistics is an integral part of contemporary applied science. bayesics provides a single framework, unified in syntax and output, for performing the most commonly used statistical procedures, ranging from one- and two-sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-18 Daniel K. Sewell , Alan T. Arakkal