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Online experiments such as Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) or A/B-tests are the bread and butter of modern platforms on the web. They are conducted continuously to allow platforms to estimate the causal effect of replacing system…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-24 Olivier Jeunen

Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction is one of the core tasks in recommender systems (RS). It predicts a personalized click probability for each user-item pair. Recently, researchers have found that the performance of CTR model can be…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2021-08-11 Qiwei Chen , Changhua Pei , Shanshan Lv , Chao Li , Junfeng Ge , Wenwu Ou

Evaluating the performance of an ongoing policy plays a vital role in many areas such as medicine and economics, to provide crucial instructions on the early-stop of the online experiment and timely feedback from the environment. Policy…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-05 Ye Shen , Hengrui Cai , Rui Song

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction plays an important role in online advertising systems. On the one hand, traditional CTR prediction models capture the collaborative signals in tabular data via feature interaction modeling, but they lose…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-09-10 Rui Dong , Wentao Ouyang , Xiangzheng Liu

As advertisers increasingly shift their budgets toward digital advertising, accurately forecasting advertising costs becomes essential for optimizing marketing campaign returns. This paper presents a comprehensive study that employs various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-22 Fynn Oldenburg , Qiwei Han , Maximilian Kaiser

$ $The classical theory of statistical estimation aims to estimate a parameter of interest under data generated from a fixed design ("offline estimation"), while the contemporary theory of online learning provides algorithms for estimation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-17 Dylan J. Foster , Yanjun Han , Jian Qian , Alexander Rakhlin

Offline preference-based reinforcement learning (PbRL) typically operates in two phases: first, use human preferences to learn a reward model and annotate rewards for a reward-free offline dataset; second, learn a policy by optimizing the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Songjun Tu , Jingbo Sun , Qichao Zhang , Yaocheng Zhang , Jia Liu , Ke Chen , Dongbin Zhao

Understanding user interests is crucial for Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction tasks. In sequential recommendation, pre-training from user historical behaviors through self-supervised learning can better comprehend user dynamic…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Ruidong Han , Qianzhong Li , He Jiang , Rui Li , Yurou Zhao , Xiang Li , Wei Lin

For industrial learning-to-rank (LTR) systems, it is common that the output of a ranking model is modified, either as a results of post-processing logic that enforces business requirements, or as a result of unforeseen design flaws or bugs…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-11-06 Matej Jakimov , Alexander Buchholz , Yannik Stein , Thorsten Joachims

Time-dependent Origin-Destination (OD) demand flows are fundamental inputs for Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) systems and real-time traffic management. This work introduces a novel state-space framework to estimate these demand flows in…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-11-21 Guido Cantelmo , Moeid Qurashi , A. Arun Prakash , Constantinos Antoniou , Francesco Viti

We hypothesize that empirically studying the sample complexity of offline reinforcement learning (RL) is crucial for the practical applications of RL in the real world. Several recent works have demonstrated the ability to learn policies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-03 Samin Yeasar Arnob , Riashat Islam , Doina Precup

Matching users based on mutual preferences is a fundamental aspect of services driven by reciprocal recommendations, such as job search and dating applications. Although A/B tests remain the gold standard for evaluating new policies in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-21 Yudai Hayashi , Shuhei Goda , Yuta Saito

Scaling test-time compute has proven highly effective for language models, yet this opportunity remains largely unexplored for industrial Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. CTR models suffer from a fundamental asymmetry: feature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Moyu Zhang , Yun Chen , Yujun Jin , Jinxin Hu , Yu Zhang , Xiaoyi Zeng

Click-through rate prediction is one of the core tasks in commercial recommender systems. It aims to predict the probability of a user clicking a particular item given user and item features. As feature interactions bring in non-linearity,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-25 Fuyuan Lyu , Xing Tang , Huifeng Guo , Ruiming Tang , Xiuqiang He , Rui Zhang , Xue Liu

The recent emergence of reinforcement learning has created a demand for robust statistical inference methods for the parameter estimates computed using these algorithms. Existing methods for statistical inference in online learning are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-29 Pratik Ramprasad , Yuantong Li , Zhuoran Yang , Zhaoran Wang , Will Wei Sun , Guang Cheng

This paper addresses the problem of policy selection in domains with abundant logged data, but with a restricted interaction budget. Solving this problem would enable safe evaluation and deployment of offline reinforcement learning policies…

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical task in online advertising systems. Models like Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are simple but stateless. They consider each target ad independently and cannot directly extract useful…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2019-07-23 Wentao Ouyang , Xiuwu Zhang , Shukui Ren , Li Li , Zhaojie Liu , Yanlong Du

It is desirable for policies to optimistically explore new states and behaviors during online reinforcement learning (RL) or fine-tuning, especially when prior offline data does not provide enough state coverage. However, exploration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-13 Max Sobol Mark , Archit Sharma , Fahim Tajwar , Rafael Rafailov , Sergey Levine , Chelsea Finn

In digital advertising, Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) are very important metrics for evaluating ad performance. As a result, ad event prediction systems are vital and widely used for sponsored search and display…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-04 Saeid Soheily Khah , Yiming Wu

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical task in online advertising systems. Most existing methods mainly model the feature-CTR relationship and suffer from the data sparsity issue. In this paper, we propose DeepMCP, which models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-22 Wentao Ouyang , Xiuwu Zhang , Shukui Ren , Chao Qi , Zhaojie Liu , Yanlong Du