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The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is widely used for data assimilation in high-dimensional systems, but its performance often deteriorates for strongly nonlinear dynamics due to the structural mismatch between the Kalman update and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Xin T. Tong , Yanyan Wang , Liang Yan

Ensemble methods such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are widely used for data assimilation in large-scale geophysical applications, as for example in numerical weather prediction (NWP). There is a growing interest for physical models…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-01 Sylvain Robert , Hans R. Künsch

Data assimilation is a method of uncertainty quantification to estimate the hidden true state by updating the prediction owing to model dynamics with observation data. As a prediction model, we consider a class of nonlinear dynamical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-05 Kota Takeda , Takashi Sakajo

The extended Kalman filter (EKF) is a cornerstone of nonlinear state estimation, yet its performance is fundamentally limited by noise-model mismatch and linearization errors. We develop a residual-aware distributionally robust EKF that…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-06 Minhyuk Jang , Jungjin Lee , Astghik Hakobyan , Naira Hovakimyan , Insoon Yang

This paper extends the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for inverse problems to identify trending model coefficients. This is done by repeatedly inflating the ensemble while maintaining the mean of the particles. As a benchmark serves a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-01-30 M. Schwenzer , G. Visconti , M. Ay , T. Bergs , M. Herty , D. Abel

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a reliable data assimilation tool for high-dimensional meteorological problems. On the other hand, the EnKF can be interpreted as a particle filter, and particle filters collapse in high-dimensional…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-06-01 Matthias Morzfeld , Daniel Hodyss , Chris Snyder

In a recent methodological paper, we showed how to learn chaotic dynamics along with the state trajectory from sequentially acquired observations, using local ensemble Kalman filters. Here, we more systematically investigate the possibility…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-19 Quentin Malartic , Alban Farchi , Marc Bocquet

Data assimilation provides algorithms for widespread applications in various fields. It is of practical use to deal with a large amount of information in the complex system that is hard to estimate. Weather forecasting is one of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-23 Yihua Yang

The reconstruction of the dynamics of an observed physical system as a surrogate model has been brought to the fore by recent advances in machine learning. To deal with partial and noisy observations in that endeavor, machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-06 Marc Bocquet , Alban Farchi , Quentin Malartic

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a Monte Carlo based implementation of the Kalman filter (KF) for extremely high-dimensional, possibly nonlinear and non-Gaussian state estimation problems. Its ability to handle state dimensions in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-12 Michael Roth , Gustaf Hendeby , Carsten Fritsche , Fredrik Gustafsson

The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), as a fundamental data assimilation approach, has been widely used in many fields of the sciences and engineering. When the state variable is of high dimensional accompanied with high resolution…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-18 Shouxia Wang , Hao-Xuan Sun , Song Xi Chen

Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF) is a popular technique for data assimilation, with far ranging applications. However, the vanilla EnKF framework is not well-defined when perturbations are nonlinear. We study two non-linear extensions of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-24 Zachariah Malik , Romit Maulik

Orientation estimation for 3D objects is a common problem that is usually tackled with traditional nonlinear filtering techniques such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) or the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). Most of these techniques assume…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-08-19 Igor Gilitschenski , Gerhard Kurz , Simon J. Julier , Uwe D. Hanebeck

Accurate estimation and forecasting of energy consumption are important for power-system operation, planning, and demand-side management. In practice, however, complete and timely measurements may not always be available, and the observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Ruoyu Hu , Dahai Yu , Feng Bao , Guang Wang , Guannan Zhang

The Kalman filter is a fundamental tool for state estimation in dynamical systems. While originally developed for linear Gaussian settings, it has been extended to nonlinear problems through approaches such as the extended and unscented…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Yuan Wu , Sicheng He

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) (Evensen, 2009) has proven effective in quantifying uncertainty in a number of challenging dynamic, state estimation, or data assimilation, problems such as weather forecasting and ocean modeling. In these…

Data assimilation is concerned with sequentially estimating a temporally-evolving state. This task, which arises in a wide range of scientific and engineering applications, is particularly challenging when the state is high-dimensional and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-21 Yuming Chen , Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Rebecca Willett

Data assimilation (DA) integrates numerical model forecasts with observations to achieve the optimal state estimation. Ensemble-based methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), are widely used for state estimation for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-25 Zhou Yao , Zhilin Li , Li Zhao , Zeng Liu , Zhaokuan Lu , Seungnam Kim , Guangyao Wang

Kalman Filter (KF) is an optimal linear state prediction algorithm, with applications in fields as diverse as engineering, economics, robotics, and space exploration. Here, we develop an extension of the KF, called a Pathspace Kalman Filter…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-03 Chaitra Agrahar , William Poole , Simone Bianco , Hana El-Samad

The use of model order reduction techniques in combination with ensemble-based methods for estimating the state of systems described by nonlinear partial differential equations has been of great interest in recent years in the data…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-12-18 Francesco A. B. Silva , Cecilia Pagliantini , Karen Veroy