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Markov models of character substitution on phylogenies form the foundation of phylogenetic inference frameworks. Early models made the simplifying assumption that the substitution process is homogeneous over time and across sites in the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-06-13 Guy Baele , Mandev S. Gill , Philippe Lemey , Marc A. Suchard

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Pieter Vanmechelen , Geert Lombaert , Giovanni Samaey

Cartesian tree matching is the problem of finding all substrings of a given text which have the same Cartesian trees as that of a given pattern. So far there is one linear-time solution for Cartesian tree matching, which is based on the KMP…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-08-15 Siwoo Song , Cheol Ryu , Simone Faro , Thierry Lecroq , Kunsoo Park

This paper describes a deep-SDM framework, MALPOLON. Written in Python and built upon the PyTorch library, this framework aims to facilitate training and inferences of deep species distribution models (deep-SDM) and sharing for users with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Theo Larcher , Lukas Picek , Benjamin Deneu , Titouan Lorieul , Maximilien Servajean , Alexis Joly

In order to gain an understanding of the effectiveness of phylogenetic Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), it is important to understand how quickly the empirical distribution of the MCMC converges to the posterior distribution. In this paper…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-10-20 Christopher Whidden , Frederick A. Matsen

The generality and robustness of inference algorithms is critical to the success of widely used probabilistic programming languages such as Stan, PyMC, Pyro, and Turing.jl. When designing a new general-purpose inference algorithm, whether…

This paper studies a Markov chain for phylogenetic reconstruction which uses a popular transition between tree topologies known as subtree pruning-and-regrafting (SPR). We analyze the Markov chain in the simpler setting that the generating…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-03-13 Daniel Stefankovic , Eric Vigoda

Many problems of practical interest rely on Continuous-time Markov chains~(CTMCs) defined over combinatorial state spaces, rendering the computation of transition probabilities, and hence probabilistic inference, difficult or impossible…

The main question concerns another recent advance in sequential Monte Carlo, the use of a mixture transition kernel that automatically adapts to the target distribution (Douc et al. 2006). Is there a class of static inference problems for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 David R. Bickel

Learning informative representations of phylogenetic tree structures is essential for analyzing evolutionary relationships. Classical distance-based methods have been widely used to project phylogenetic trees into Euclidean space, but they…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-10 Tianyu Xie , Harry Richman , Jiansi Gao , Frederick A. Matsen , Cheng Zhang

Bayesian inference for exponential family random graph models (ERGMs) is a doubly-intractable problem because of the intractability of both the likelihood and posterior normalizing factor. Auxiliary variable based Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-15 Fan Yin , Carter T. Butts

Designing flexible probabilistic models over tree topologies is important for developing efficient phylogenetic inference methods. To do that, previous works often leverage the similarity of tree topologies via hand-engineered heuristic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-10-17 Tianyu Xie , Cheng Zhang

We present VBPI-Mixtures, an algorithm designed to enhance the accuracy of phylogenetic posterior distributions, particularly for tree-topology and branch-length approximations. Despite the Variational Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-03 Oskar Kviman , Ricky Molén , Jens Lagergren

Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-30 Luigi Acerbi

We present a novel Bayesian inference tool that uses a neural network to parameterise efficient Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) proposals. The target distribution is first transformed into a diagonal, unit variance Gaussian by a series of…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-06-03 Adam Moss

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-19 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

Comparative and evolutive ecologists are interested in the distribution of quantitative traits among related species. The classical framework for these distributions consists of a random process running along the branches of a phylogenetic…

Applications · Statistics 2017-08-24 Paul Bastide , Mahendra Mariadassou , Stéphane Robin

We develop an automated variational inference method for Bayesian structured prediction problems with Gaussian process (GP) priors and linear-chain likelihoods. Our approach does not need to know the details of the structured likelihood…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-15 Pietro Galliani , Amir Dezfouli , Edwin V. Bonilla , Novi Quadrianto

Decision trees and random forest remain highly competitive for classification on medium-sized, standard datasets due to their robustness, minimal preprocessing requirements, and interpretability. However, a single tree suffers from high…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-02 Cencheng Shen , Yuexiao Dong , Carey E. Priebe

1. Bayesian inference is difficult because it often requires time consuming tuning of samplers. Differential evolution Monte-Carlo (DEMC) is a self-tuning multi-chain sampling approach which requires minimal input from the operator as…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-22 Willem Bonnaffé