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Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Abdul Fatir Ansari , Alvin Heng , Andre Lim , Harold Soh

Data-dependent metrics are powerful tools for learning the underlying structure of high-dimensional data. This article develops and analyzes a data-dependent metric known as diffusion state distance (DSD), which compares points using a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-10 Lenore Cowen , Kapil Devkota , Xiaozhe Hu , James M. Murphy , Kaiyi Wu

We develop a weighted Bayesian Bootstrap (WBB) for machine learning and statistics. WBB provides uncertainty quantification by sampling from a high dimensional posterior distribution. WBB is computationally fast and scalable using only…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-06 Michael Newton , Nicholas G. Polson , Jianeng Xu

Modern regression applications can involve hundreds or thousands of variables which motivates the use of variable selection methods. Bayesian variable selection defines a posterior distribution on the possible subsets of the variables…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-16 J. E. Griffin

How might a smooth probability distribution be estimated, with accurately quantified uncertainty, from a limited amount of sampled data? Here we describe a field-theoretic approach that addresses this problem remarkably well in one…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-10-24 Wei-Chia Chen , Ammar Tareen , Justin B. Kinney

Although deep neural network (DNN) has achieved many state-of-the-art results, estimating the uncertainty presented in the DNN model and the data is a challenging task. Problems related to uncertainty such as classifying unknown classes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-17 Buu Phan

Studying the reliability of complex systems using machine learning techniques involves facing a series of technical and practical challenges, ranging from the intrinsic nature of the system and data to the difficulties in modeling and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Maria Luz Gamiz , Fernando Navas-Gomez , Rafael Nozal-Cañadas , Rocio Raya-Miranda

The probability density distributions for the ground states of certain model systems in quantum mechanics and for their classical counterparts are considered. It is shown, that classical distributions are remarkably improved by…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-01-23 Tomasz Radozycki

Deep neural network (DNN) models have achieved state-of-the-art predictive accuracy in a wide range of supervised learning applications. However, accurately quantifying the uncertainty in DNN predictions remains a challenging task. For…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Daiwei Zhang , Tianci Liu , Jian Kang

The Birnbaum-Saunders distribution has been used quite effectively to model times to failure for materials subject to fatigue and for modeling lifetime data. In this paper we obtain asymptotic expansions, up to order $n^{-1/2}$ and under a…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-11-22 Artur Lemonte , Silvia Ferrari

Robust statistical data modelling under potential model mis-specification often requires leaving the parametric world for the nonparametric. In the latter, parameters are infinite dimensional objects such as functions, probability…

Decision-makers abhor uncertainty, and it is certainly true that the less there is of it the better. However, recognizing that uncertainty is part of the equation, particularly for deciding on environmental policy, is a prerequisite for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-28 Noel Cressie

Dispersion is a fundamental concept in statistics, yet standard approaches - especially via stochastic orders - face limitations in the discrete setting. In particular, the classical dispersive order, well-established for continuous…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Andreas Eberl , Bernhard Klar , Alfonso Suárez-Llorens

Self-diffusion coefficients, $D^*$, are routinely estimated from molecular dynamics simulations by fitting a linear model to the observed mean-squared displacements (MSDs) of mobile species. MSDs derived from simulation exhibit statistical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-01-05 Andrew R. McCluskey , Samuel W. Coles , Benjamin J. Morgan

Bayesian multidimensional scaling (BMDS) is a probabilistic dimension reduction tool that allows one to model and visualize data consisting of dissimilarities between pairs of objects. Although BMDS has proven useful within, e.g., Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-23 Ami Sheth , Aaron Smith , Andrew J. Holbrook

We introduce, for the first time, a new class of Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models potentially useful in lifetime data analysis. The class generalizes the regression model described by Rieck and Nedelman [1991, A log-linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-07-03 Artur J. Lemonte , Gauss M. Cordeiro

In this paper, we propose standard statistical tools as a solution to commonly highlighted problems in the explainability literature. Indeed, leveraging statistical estimators allows for a proper definition of explanations, enabling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Valentina Ghidini

Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-15 Shintaro Hashimoto , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Deep neural network models have become ubiquitous in recent years, and have been applied to nearly all areas of science, engineering, and industry. These models are particularly useful for data that have strong dependencies in space (e.g.,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-07 Christopher K. Wikle , Andrew Zammit-Mangion

Statistical modeling of data sets by neural-network techniques is offered as an alternative to traditional semiempirical approaches to global modeling of nuclear properties. New results are presented to support the position that such novel…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2017-08-23 J. W. Clark , E. Mavrommatis , S. Athanassopoulos , A. Dakos , K. Gernoth