Related papers: Forecast Relative Error Decomposition

A novel approach to Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVD) in nonlinear Structural Vector Autoregressive models with Gaussian innovations is proposed, called the Hermite FEVD (HFEVD). This method employs a Hermite polynomial…

The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method and its variants have been extensively employed in the load and renewable forecasting literature. Using this multiresolution decomposition, time series (TS) related to the historical load and…

The analysis of non-stationary time-series data requires insight into its local and global patterns with physical interpretability. However, traditional smoothing algorithms, such as B-splines, Savitzky-Golay filtering, and Empirical Mode…

Time-series forecasting often faces challenges due to data volatility, which can lead to inaccurate predictions. Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) has emerged as a promising technique to mitigate volatility by decomposing data into…

The past few years have seen impressive progress in the development of deep generative models capable of producing high-dimensional, complex, and photo-realistic data. However, current methods for evaluating such models remain incomplete:…

This paper considers an alternative method for fitting CARR models using combined estimating functions (CEF) by showing its usefulness in applications in economics and quantitative finance. The associated information matrix for…

In this paper, a novel decomposition method for non-stationary and nonlinear signals is proposed. This method is inspired by the adaptive wavelet filter bank of the empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and Fourier intrinsic band functions…

Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) has been used widely to determine possible long-range correlations in data obtained from diverse settings. In a recent study [1], uncorrelated random spikes superimposed on the long-range correlated…

The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) provides a tool to characterize time series in terms of its implicit components oscillating at different time-scales. We apply this decomposition to intraday time series of the following three…

This article introduces an advanced Koopman mode decomposition (KMD) technique -- coined Featurized Koopman Mode Decomposition (FKMD) -- that uses delay embedding and a learned Mahalanobis distance to enhance analysis and prediction of high…

The DMD (Dynamic Mode Decomposition) method has attracted widespread attention as a representative modal-decomposition method and can build a predictive model. However, the DMD may give predicted results that deviate from physical reality…

In the present work we address the problem of evaluating the historical performance of a trading strategy or a certain portfolio of assets. Common indicators such as the Sharpe ratio and the risk adjusted return have significant drawbacks.…

Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) has recently become a popular tool for the non-intrusive analysis of dynamical systems. Exploiting Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) as a dimensionality reduction technique, DMD is able to approximate a…

Deep learning approaches have been widely adopted for precipitation nowcasting in recent years. Previous studies mainly focus on proposing new model architectures to improve pixel-wise metrics. However, they frequently result in blurry…

This work proposes a hybrid modeling framework based on recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and the finite element (FE) method to approximate model discrepancies in time dependent, multi-fidelity problems, and use the trained hybrid models to…

Highly accurate interval forecasting of electricity demand is fundamental to the success of reducing the risk when making power system planning and operational decisions by providing a range rather than point estimation. In this study, a…

Probability estimation is an elementary building block of every statistical data compression algorithm. In practice probability estimation is often based on relative letter frequencies which get scaled down, when their sum is too large.…

Irregularly sampled time series with missing values are often observed in multiple real-world applications such as healthcare, climate and astronomy. They pose a significant challenge to standard deep learning models that operate only on…

In this article, we apply non-convex regularization methods in order to obtain stable estimation of loss development factors in insurance claims reserving. Among the non-convex regularization methods, we focus on the use of the log-adjusted…

A novel data-driven method of modal analysis for complex flow dynamics, termed as reduced-order variational mode decomposition (RVMD), has been proposed, combining the idea of the separation of variables and a state-of-the-art nonstationary…