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Exploring causal relationships in stochastic time series is a challenging yet crucial task with a vast range of applications, including finance, economics, neuroscience, and climate science. Many algorithms for Causal Discovery (CD) have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Matteo Tusoni , Giuseppe Masi , Andrea Coletta , Aldo Glielmo , Viviana Arrigoni , Novella Bartolini

Real-world non-autonomous systems are open, out-of-equilibrium systems that evolve in and are driven by temporally varying environments. Such systems can show multiple timescale and transient dynamics together with transitions to very…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-07-12 Klaus Lehnertz

This paper provides a general identification approach for a wide range of nonlinear panel data models, including binary choice, ordered response, and other types of limited dependent variable models. Our approach accommodates dynamic models…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-09 Wayne Yuan Gao , Rui Wang

Causal discovery (CD) from time-varying data is important in neuroscience, medicine, and machine learning. Techniques for CD encompass randomized experiments, which are generally unbiased but expensive, and algorithms such as Granger…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Xinyue Wang , Konrad Paul Kording

This paper proposes a novel graphical model, termed the spatial dependence graph model, which captures the global dependence structure of different events that occur randomly in space. In the spatial dependence graph model, the edge set is…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-26 Matthias Eckardt

Causal discovery from multivariate time series is challenging when causal effects may occur both across time and within the same sampling interval. This issue is especially important in applications such as neuroscience, where the sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-22 SeyedSina Seyedi HasanAbadi , Fahimeh Arab , Erfan Nozari , AmirEmad Ghassami

We present a domain-general account of causation that applies to settings in which macro-level causal relations between two systems are of interest, but the relevant causal features are poorly understood and have to be aggregated from vast…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-29 Krzysztof Chalupka , Pietro Perona , Frederick Eberhardt

In this work, we introduce an information-theoretic approach for considering changes in dynamics of finitely dimensional open quantum systems governed by master equations. This experimentally motivated approach arises from considering how…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-05-03 Katarzyna Macieszczak

We consider a new class of non Markovian processes with a countable number of interacting components. At each time unit, each component can take two values, indicating if it has a spike or not at this precise moment. The system evolves as…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-12 Antonio Galves , Eva Löcherbach

Identifying causal relationships from observational time series data is a key problem in disciplines such as climate science or neuroscience, where experiments are often not possible. Data-driven causal inference is challenging since…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-03 Jakob Runge , Peer Nowack , Marlene Kretschmer , Seth Flaxman , Dino Sejdinovic

Causal discovery algorithms based on probabilistic graphical models have emerged in geoscience applications for the identification and visualization of dynamical processes. The key idea is to learn the structure of a graphical model from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-12-29 Imme Ebert-Uphoff , Yi Deng

Nonlinear machine-learning models are increasingly used to discover causal relationships in time-series data, yet the interpretation of their outputs remains poorly understood. In particular, causal scores produced by regularized neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Valentina Kuskova , Dmitry Zaytsev , Michael Coppedge

Standard geostatistical models assume stationarity and rely on a variogram model to account for the spatial dependence in the observed data. In some instances, this assumption that the spatial dependence structure is constant throughout the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-16 Dave Higdon , Jenise Swall , John Kern

Interpretable classification of time series presents significant challenges in high dimensions. Traditional feature selection methods in the frequency domain often assume sparsity in spectral density matrices (SDMs) or their inverses, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-19 Sarbojit Roy , Malik Shahid Sultan , Hernando Ombao

Unsupervised structure learning in high-dimensional time series data has attracted a lot of research interests. For example, segmenting and labelling high dimensional time series can be helpful in behavior understanding and medical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-25 Hao Liu , Haoli Bai , Lirong He , Zenglin Xu

Recent years have seen rapid progress at the intersection between causality and machine learning. Motivated by scientific applications involving high-dimensional data, in particular in biomedicine, we propose a deep neural architecture for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-12 Kai Lagemann , Christian Lagemann , Bernd Taschler , Sach Mukherjee

Constraint-based causal discovery methods leverage conditional independence tests to infer causal relationships in a wide variety of applications. Just as the majority of machine learning methods, existing work focuses on studying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-27 Siyuan Guo , Viktor Tóth , Bernhard Schölkopf , Ferenc Huszár

We focus on causal discovery in the presence of measurement error in linear systems where the mixing matrix, i.e., the matrix indicating the independent exogenous noise terms pertaining to the observed variables, is identified up to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-09 Yuqin Yang , AmirEmad Ghassami , Mohamed Nafea , Negar Kiyavash , Kun Zhang , Ilya Shpitser

Causal discovery is at the core of human cognition. It enables us to reason about the environment and make counterfactual predictions about unseen scenarios that can vastly differ from our previous experiences. We consider the task of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Yunzhu Li , Antonio Torralba , Animashree Anandkumar , Dieter Fox , Animesh Garg

This article describes a method for computing limits of a class of non-stationary Markov chains motivated by healthcare sojourn-time cycles. A mathematical validation of the computation method is also given. Applications are described that…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-19 Samuel Awoniyi