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Machine Learning systems are increasingly deployed in decision-making settings that shape user behavior and, in turn, the data on which future decisions are based. Performative Prediction (PP) formalizes this feedback loop by modeling how…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Javier Sanguino Bautiste , Thomas Kehrenberg , Jose A. Lozano , Novi Quadrianto

In many prediction problems, the predictive model affects the distribution of the prediction target. This phenomenon is known as performativity and is often caused by the behavior of individuals with vested interests in the outcome of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-03 Seamus Somerstep , Ya'acov Ritov , Yuekai Sun

Artificial-intelligence systems are becoming ubiquitous in society, yet their predictions typically inherit biases with respect to protected attributes such as race, gender, or age. Classical fairness notions, most notably Statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Filip Edström , Guilherme W. F. Barros , Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna

Machine learning models have achieved widespread success but often inherit and amplify historical biases, resulting in unfair outcomes. Traditional fairness methods typically impose constraints at the prediction level, without addressing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Enze Shi , Pankaj Bhagwat , Zhixian Yang , Linglong Kong , Bei Jiang

Predictions in the social world generally influence the target of prediction, a phenomenon known as performativity. Self-fulfilling and self-negating predictions are examples of performativity. Of fundamental importance to economics,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Moritz Hardt , Celestine Mendler-Dünner

Predictive parity (PP), also known as sufficiency, is a core definition of algorithmic fairness essentially stating that model outputs must have the same interpretation of expected outcomes regardless of group. Testing and satisfying PP is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-01 Cyrus DiCiccio , Brian Hsu , YinYin Yu , Preetam Nandy , Kinjal Basu

Deploying an algorithmically informed policy is a significant intervention in the structure of society. As is increasingly acknowledged, predictive algorithms have performative effects: using them can shift the distribution of social…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-05-01 Sebastian Zezulka , Konstantin Genin

Many popular algorithmic fairness measures depend on the joint distribution of predictions, outcomes, and a sensitive feature like race or gender. These measures are sensitive to distribution shift: a predictor which is trained to satisfy…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-11 Alan Mishler , Niccolò Dalmasso

Machine learning algorithms for prediction are increasingly being used in critical decisions affecting human lives. Various fairness formalizations, with no firm consensus yet, are employed to prevent such algorithms from systematically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-29 Pratik Gajane , Mykola Pechenizkiy

Increasing utilization of machine learning based decision support systems emphasizes the need for resulting predictions to be both accurate and fair to all stakeholders. In this work we present a novel approach to increase a Neural Network…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-08 Bhanu Jain , Manfred Huber , Ramez Elmasri

Unfair predictions of machine learning (ML) models impede their broad acceptance in real-world settings. Tackling this arduous challenge first necessitates defining what it means for an ML model to be fair. This has been addressed by the ML…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-30 Selim Kuzucu , Jiaee Cheong , Hatice Gunes , Sinan Kalkan

Time-series forecasting is a critical challenge in various domains and has witnessed substantial progress in recent years. Many real-life scenarios, such as public health, economics, and social applications, involve feedback loops where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Zhiyuan Zhao , Haoxin Liu , Alexander Rodriguez , B. Aditya Prakash

When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Juan C. Perdomo , Tijana Zrnic , Celestine Mendler-Dünner , Moritz Hardt

Performative prediction is an emerging paradigm in machine learning that addresses scenarios where the model's prediction may induce a shift in the distribution of the data it aims to predict. Current works in this field often rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Guangzheng Zhong , Yang Liu , Jiming Liu

In performative prediction, the choice of a model influences the distribution of future data, typically through actions taken based on the model's predictions. We initiate the study of stochastic optimization for performative prediction.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-22 Celestine Mendler-Dünner , Juan C. Perdomo , Tijana Zrnic , Moritz Hardt

Predictive process monitoring focuses on forecasting future states of ongoing process executions, such as predicting the outcome of a particular case. In recent years, the application of machine learning models in this domain has garnered…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Jari Peeperkorn , Simon De Vos

Machine learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly deployed to make critical decisions in socioeconomic applications such as finance, criminal justice, and autonomous driving. However, due to their data-driven and pattern-seeking nature, ML…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-01-08 Verya Monjezi , Ashish Kumar , Ashutosh Trivedi , Gang Tan , Saeid Tizpaz-Niari

Deploying an algorithmically informed policy is a significant intervention in society. Prominent methods for algorithmic fairness focus on the distribution of predictions at the time of training, rather than the distribution of social goods…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Sebastian Zezulka , Konstantin Genin

Machine learning models are increasingly used in high-stakes domains where their predictions can actively shape the environments in which they operate, a phenomenon known as performative prediction. This dynamic, in which the deployment of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Gal Fybish , Teo Susnjak

The use of machine learning to guide clinical decision making has the potential to worsen existing health disparities. Several recent works frame the problem as that of algorithmic fairness, a framework that has attracted considerable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-16 Stephen R. Pfohl , Agata Foryciarz , Nigam H. Shah
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