Related papers: Transient Evaluation of Non-Markovian Models by St…
Stochastic model-predictive control (SMPC) has evolved to a powerful framework for the control of stochastic dynamical systems. SMPC utilizes a probabilistic uncertainty description to provide a systematic trade-off between the control…
Stochastic Model Predictive Control addresses uncertainties by incorporating chance constraints that provide probabilistic guarantees of constraint satisfaction. However, simultaneously optimizing over the risk allocation and the feedback…
Stochastic and conditional simulation methods have been effective towards producing realistic realizations and simulations of spatial numerical models that share equal probability of occurrence. Application of these methods are valuable…
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…
For discrete-time linear systems subject to parametric uncertainty described by random variables, we develop a sampling-based Stochastic Model Predictive Control algorithm. Unlike earlier results employing a scenario approximation, we…
State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse…
Variance plays a crucial role in risk-sensitive reinforcement learning, and most risk measures can be analyzed via variance. In this paper, we consider two law-invariant risks as examples: mean-variance risk and exponential utility risk.…
We consider exchangeable Markov multi-state survival processes -- temporal processes taking values over a state-space$\mathcal{S}$ with at least one absorbing failure state $\flat \in \mathcal{S}$ that satisfy natural invariance properties…
Continuous-time Markov process models of contagions are widely studied, not least because of their utility in predicting the evolution of real-world contagions and in formulating control measures. It is often the case, however, that…
Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) serve as a powerful modeling tool in various scientific domains, including systems science, engineering, and ecological science. While the specific form of SDEs is typically known for a given…
Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…
For rare events described in terms of Markov processes, truly unbiased estimation of the rare event probability generally requires the avoidance of numerical approximations of the Markov process. Recent work in the exact and…
The exact dynamics of a system coupled to an environment can be described by an integro-differential stochastic equation of its reduced density. The influence of the environment is incorporated through a mean-field which is both stochastic…
We propose a simple model for sample space reducing (SSR) stochastic process, where the dynamical variable denoting the size of the state space is continuous. In general, one can view the model as a multiplicative stochastic process, with a…
This paper introduces the concept of random context representations for the transition probabilities of a finite-alphabet stochastic process. Processes with these representations generalize context tree processes (a.k.a. variable length…
In this work, we combine an established method for open quantum systems -- the time evolving density matrix using orthogonal polynomials algorithm (TEDOPA) -- with the transfer tensors formalism (TTM), a new tool for the analysis,…
We study the existence of densities for distributions of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. We also obtain relationships between invariant densities of the continuous time process and that of the process observed at jump times. In…
In this work, we introduce a simple modification of the Monte Carlo algorithm, which we call step Monte Carlo (sMC). The sMC approach allows to simulate processes far from equilibrium and obtain information about the dynamic properties of…
State space models are well-known for their versatility in modeling dynamic systems that arise in various scientific disciplines. Although parametric state space models are well studied, nonparametric approaches are much less explored in…
The use of stochastic models, in effect piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP), has become increasingly popular especially for the modeling of chemical reactions and cell biophysics. Yet, exact simulation methods, for the…