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The importance of considering contextual probabilities in shaping response patterns within psychological testing is underscored, despite the ubiquitous nature of order effects discussed extensively in methodological literature. Drawing from…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-28 Andrea Bosco

A divide-and-conquer approach to analyzing Markov chains (MCs) is not utilized as widely as it could be, despite its potential benefits. One primary reason for this is the fact that most MC decomposition approaches involve a complex and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-25 Katsunobu Sasanuma , Robert Hampshire , Alan Scheller-Wolf

A decade ago, Abdulla, Ben Henda and Mayr introduced the elegant concept of decisiveness for denumerable Markov chains [1]. Roughly speaking, decisiveness allows one to lift most good properties from finite Markov chains to denumerable…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-04-05 Nathalie Bertrand , Patricia Bouyer , Thomas Brihaye , Pierre Carlier

In the last years, many authors studied a class of continuous time semi-Markov processes obtained by time-changing Markov processes by hitting times of independent subordinators. Such processes are governed by integro-differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-24 Angelica Pachon , Federico Polito , Costantino Ricciuti

This paper proposes new parametric model adequacy tests for possibly nonlinear and nonstationary time series models with noncontinuous data distribution, which is often the case in applied work. In particular, we consider the correct…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-10 Igor Kheifets , Carlos Velasco

The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-30 Yi Hao , Alon Orlitsky , Venkatadheeraj Pichapati

Applications of stochastic models often involve the evaluation of steady-state performance, which requires solving a set of balance equations. In most cases of interest, the number of equations is infinite or even uncountable. As a result,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-04-08 Shukai Li , Sanjay Mehrotra

We register a random sequence which has the following properties: it has three segments being the homogeneous Markov processes. Each segment has his own one step transition probability law and the length of the segment is unknown and…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-21 Krzysztof Szajowski

Multivariate regression models and ANOVA are probably the most frequently applied methods of all statistical analyses. We study the case where the predictors are qualitative variables, and the response variable is quantitative. In this…

Applications · Statistics 2021-05-04 Abraham Gutierrez , Sebastian Müller

We consider the problem of approximating the stationary distribution of an ergodic Markov chain given a set of sampled transitions. Classical simulation-based approaches assume access to the underlying process so that trajectories of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-03 Junfeng Wen , Bo Dai , Lihong Li , Dale Schuurmans

Probabilistic model checking is a useful technique for specifying and verifying properties of stochastic systems including randomized protocols and reinforcement learning models. Existing methods rely on the assumed structure and…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-08-02 Lisa Oakley , Alina Oprea , Stavros Tripakis

Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer $k$-th order Markov chains, for arbitrary $k$, from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-13 Christopher C. Strelioff , James P. Crutchfield , Alfred W. Hubler

These lecture notes introduce the statistical analysis of continuous-time generative models built from Markov dynamics. We begin with the stochastic-calculus foundations of score-based diffusion models, including time reversal, score…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-27 Eddie Aamari , Arthur Stéphanovitch

We propose a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method in which trial configurations are generated by evolving a state, sampled from a prior distribution, using a Markov transition matrix. We present two prototypical algorithms and derive their…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-01-09 Joel Mabillard , Isha Malhotra , Bortolo Matteo Mognetti

When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This is done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-08-12 Gert de Cooman , Filip Hermans , Erik Quaeghebeur

We examine reaction networks (CRNs) through their associated continuous-time Markov processes. Studying the dynamics of such networks is in general hard, both analytically and by simulation. In particular, stationary distributions of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-28 Linard Hoessly

We present a Markov-chain analysis of blockwise-stochastic algorithms for solving partially block-separable optimization problems. Our main contributions to the extensive literature on these methods are statements about the Markov operators…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-11-01 D. Russell Luke

Continuous Time Markov Chain (CMTC) is widely used to describe and analyze systems in several knowledge areas. Steady state availability is one important analysis that can be made through Markov chain formalism that allows researchers…

Performance · Computer Science 2017-01-24 Eduardo M. Vasconcelos

Let S be a denumerable state space and let P be a transition probability matrix on S. If a denumerable set M of nonnegative matrices is such that the sum of the matrices is equal to P, then we call M a partition of P. Let K denote the set…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-03-08 Thomas Kaijser

Herein, the Hidden Markov Model is expanded to allow for Markov chain observations. In particular, the observations are assumed to be a Markov chain whose one step transition probabilities depend upon the hidden Markov chain. An…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-18 Michael A. Kouritzin