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We introduce a novel combination of Bayesian Models (BMs) and Neural Networks (NNs) for making predictions with a minimum expected risk. Our approach combines the best of both worlds, the data efficiency and interpretability of a BM with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-28 Mathias Löwe , Per Lunnemann Hansen , Sebastian Risi

Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for probabilistic reasoning. If inference is performed in two steps, uncertainty propagation plays a crucial role in accounting for all sources of uncertainty and variability. This becomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Svenja Jedhoff , Hadi Kutabi , Anne Meyer , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-28 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik

We propose a Bayesian inference framework to estimate uncertainties in inverse scattering problems. Given the observed data, the forward model and their uncertainties, we find the posterior distribution over a finite parameter field…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-11-17 Ana Carpio , Sergei Iakunin , Georg Stadler

Prediction is a central task of statistics and machine learning, yet many inferential settings provide only partial information, typically in the form of moment constraints or estimating equations. We develop a finite, fully Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-20 Nicholas G. Polson , Daniel Zantedeschi

In engineering design, surrogate models are widely employed to replace computationally expensive simulations by leveraging design variables and geometric parameters from computer-aided design (CAD) models. However, these models often lose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Jangseop Park , Namwoo Kang

Recently, Neural Ordinary Differential Equations has emerged as a powerful framework for modeling physical simulations without explicitly defining the ODEs governing the system, but instead learning them via machine learning. However, the…

Bayesian formulations of inverse problems are attractive for their ability to incorporate prior knowledge and update probabilistic models as new data become available. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods sample posterior probability…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-05-07 Giovanni Angelo Meles , Stefano Marelli , Niklas Linde

Predicting stress fields in hyperelastic materials with complex microstructures remains challenging for traditional deep learning surrogates, which struggle to capture both sharp stress concentrations and the wide dynamic range of stress…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-20 Purna Vindhya Kota , Meer Mehran Rashid , Somdatta Goswami , Lori Graham-Brady

Fluctuations of the glacier calving front have an important influence over the ice flow of whole glacier systems. It is therefore important to precisely monitor the position of the calving front. However, the manual delineation of SAR…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-05 Andreas Hartmann , Amirabbas Davari , Thorsten Seehaus , Matthias Braun , Andreas Maier , Vincent Christlein

We propose the first Bayesian encoder for metric learning. Rather than relying on neural amortization as done in prior works, we learn a distribution over the network weights with the Laplace Approximation. We actualize this by first…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Frederik Warburg , Marco Miani , Silas Brack , Soren Hauberg

We present a new Subset Simulation approach using Hamiltonian neural network-based Monte Carlo sampling for reliability analysis. The proposed strategy combines the superior sampling of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-11 Denny Thaler , Somayajulu L. N. Dhulipala , Franz Bamer , Bernd Markert , Michael D. Shields

Bayesian neural networks utilize probabilistic layers that capture uncertainty over weights and activations, and are trained using Bayesian inference. Since these probabilistic layers are designed to be drop-in replacement of their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-28 Daniel T. Chang

Artificial Neural Networks are connectionist systems that perform a given task by learning on examples without having prior knowledge about the task. This is done by finding an optimal point estimate for the weights in every node.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-10 Kumar Shridhar , Felix Laumann , Marcus Liwicki

Robust machine learning models with accurately calibrated uncertainties are crucial for safety-critical applications. Probabilistic machine learning and especially the Bayesian formalism provide a systematic framework to incorporate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Sumegha Premchandar , Sandeep Madireddy , Sanket Jantre , Prasanna Balaprakash

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

Being able to reliably assess not only the \emph{accuracy} but also the \emph{uncertainty} of models' predictions is an important endeavour in modern machine learning. Even if the model generating the data and labels is known, computing the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

We investigate solution methods for large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) via Bayesian inference. The Bayesian framework provides a statistical setting to infer uncertain parameters from noisy…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-08 Mina Karimi , Mehrdad Massoudi , Kaushik Dayal , Matteo Pozzi

For the retrieval of large-scale vegetation biophysical parameters, the inversion of radiative transfer models (RTMs) is the most commonly used approach. In recent years, Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based methods have become the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Dasheng Fan , Xihan Mu , Yongkang Lai , Donghui Xie , Guangjian Yan

The paper presents a Bayesian framework for the calibration of financial models using neural stochastic differential equations (neural SDEs), for which we also formulate a global universal approximation theorem based on Barron-type…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-12 Christa Cuchiero , Eva Flonner , Kevin Kurt