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Ensemble learning is widely used in applications to make predictions in complex decision problems---for example, averaging models fitted to a sequence of samples bootstrapped from the available training data. While such methods offer more…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-13 Byol Kim , Chen Xu , Rina Foygel Barber

Deep learning models achieve high predictive accuracy across a broad spectrum of tasks, but rigorously quantifying their predictive uncertainty remains challenging. Usable estimates of predictive uncertainty should (1) cover the true…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-28 Ahmed M. Alaa , Mihaela van der Schaar

Linear instrumental variable regressions are widely used to estimate causal effects. Many instruments arise from the use of ``technical'' instruments and more recently from the empirical strategy of ``judge design''. This paper surveys and…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-26 Anna Mikusheva , Liyang Sun

We introduce a novel approach called the Bayesian Jackknife empirical likelihood method for analyzing survey data obtained from various unequal probability sampling designs. This method is particularly applicable to parameters described by…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-14 Mengdong Shang , Xia Chen

A large degree of overidentification causes severe bias in TSLS. A conventional heuristic rule used to motivate new estimators in this context is approximate bias. This paper formalizes the definition of approximate bias and expands the…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-22 Lei Bill Wang

Collecting multiple types of data on the same set of subjects is common in modern scientific applications including, genomics, metabolomics, and neuroimaging. Joint and Individual Variance Explained (JIVE) seeks a low-rank approximation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-16 Raphiel J. Murden , Ganzhong Tian , Deqiang Qiu , Benajmin B. Risk

Many modern datasets consist of multiple related matrices measured on a common set of units, where the goal is to recover the shared low-dimensional subspace. While the Angle-based Joint and Individual Variation Explained (AJIVE) framework…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-03 Jingyang Li , Zhongyuan Lyu

We develop a framework for quantifying omitted variable bias (OVB) in nonlinear instrumental variable (IV) estimators, including the local average treatment effect (LATE), the LATE for the treated (LATT), and the partially linear IV model…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-07 Yu-Min Yen

Statistical resampling methods have become feasible for parametric estimation, hypothesis testing, and model validation now that the computer is a ubiquitous tool for statisticians. This essay focuses on the resampling technique for…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-03 Avery McIntosh

This paper introduces the jackknife+, which is a novel method for constructing predictive confidence intervals. Whereas the jackknife outputs an interval centered at the predicted response of a test point, with the width of the interval…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-02 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

This paper proposes computationally efficient methods that can be used for instrumental variable quantile regressions (IVQR) and related methods with statistical guarantees. This is much needed when we investigate heterogenous treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-09-06 Yinchu Zhu

The method of instrumental variables (IV) provides a framework to study causal effects in both randomized experiments with noncompliance and in observational studies where natural circumstances produce as-if random nudges to accept…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-07 Hyunseung Kang , Laura Peck , Luke Keele

In many applications, parameters of interest are estimated by solving some non-smooth estimating equations with $U$-statistic structure. Jackknife empirical likelihood (JEL) approach can solve this problem efficiently by reducing the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-18 Yongli Sang , Xin Dang , Yichuan Zhao

The problem of endogeneity in statistics and econometrics is often handled by introducing instrumental variables (IV) which fulfill the mean independence assumption, i.e. the unobservable is mean independent of the instruments. When full…

Computation · Statistics 2021-08-13 Fabian Dunker

This paper introduces a straightforward sieve-based approach for estimating and conducting inference on regression parameters in panel data models with interactive fixed effects. The method's key assumption is that factor loadings can be…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-26 Georg Keilbar , Juan M. Rodriguez-Poo , Alexandra Soberon , Weining Wang

We provide a convergence analysis of deep feature instrumental variable (DFIV) regression (Xu et al., 2021), a nonparametric approach to IV regression using data-adaptive features learned by deep neural networks in two stages. We prove that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-10 Juno Kim , Dimitri Meunier , Arthur Gretton , Taiji Suzuki , Zhu Li

Researchers often use instrumental variables (IV) models to investigate the causal relationship between an endogenous variable and an outcome while controlling for covariates. When an exogenous variable is unavailable to serve as the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-18 Moses Stewart

In this paper we develop the James - Stein improved estimation method for a nonparametric periodic function observed with the Levy noises in continuous time. An adaptive model selection procedure based on the improved weighted least square…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Evgeny Pchelintsev , Valerii Pchelintsev , Serguei Pergamenshchikov

Instrumental variables (eliminate the bias that afflicts least-squares identification of dynamical systems through noisy data, yet traditionally relies on external instruments that are seldom available for nonlinear time series data. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Simon Kuang , Xinfan Lin

To reach human level intelligence, learning algorithms need to incorporate causal reasoning. But identifying causality, and particularly counterfactual reasoning, remains elusive. In this paper, we make progress on counterfactual inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Marc Braun , Jose M. Peña , Adel Daoud
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