English
Related papers

Related papers: Ensembles of Probabilistic Regression Trees

200 papers

Merging satellite products and ground-based measurements is often required for obtaining precipitation datasets that simultaneously cover large regions with high density and are more accurate than pure satellite precipitation products.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-06 Georgia Papacharalampous , Hristos Tyralis , Anastasios Doulamis , Nikolaos Doulamis

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Yuta Nakahara , Shota Saito , Naoki Ichijo , Koki Kazama , Toshiyasu Matsushima

Assume we are given a set of items from a general metric space, but we neither have access to the representation of the data nor to the distances between data points. Instead, suppose that we can actively choose a triplet of items (A,B,C)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-19 Siavash Haghiri , Damien Garreau , Ulrike von Luxburg

In this paper a general class of tree algorithms is analyzed. It is shown that, by using an appropriate probabilistic representation of the quantities of interest, the asymptotic behavior of these algorithms can be obtained quite easily…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Hanène Mohamed , Philippe Robert

We adapt the idea of random projections applied to the output space, so as to enhance tree-based ensemble methods in the context of multi-label classification. We show how learning time complexity can be reduced without affecting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-02 Arnaud Joly , Pierre Geurts , Louis Wehenkel

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior…

Ensemble methods are known for enhancing the accuracy and robustness of machine learning models by combining multiple base learners. However, standard approaches like greedy or random ensembling often fall short, as they assume a constant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Sebastian Pineda Arango , Maciej Janowski , Lennart Purucker , Arber Zela , Frank Hutter , Josif Grabocka

We propose a novel "tree-averaging" model that utilizes the ensemble of classification and regression trees (CART). Each constituent tree is estimated with a subset of similar data. We treat this grouping of subsets as Bayesian ensemble…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-08-20 Leo L. Duan , John P. Clancy , Rhonda D. Szczesniak

Decision Trees and Random Forests are among the most widely used machine learning models, and often achieve state-of-the-art performance in tabular, domain-agnostic datasets. Nonetheless, being primarily discriminative models they lack…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-14 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Robert Peharz , Cassio de Campos

Since their inception in the 1980's, regression trees have been one of the more widely used non-parametric prediction methods. Tree-structured methods yield a histogram reconstruction of the regression surface, where the bins correspond to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-17 Veronika Rockova , Stephanie van der Pas

Decision trees are widely used for non-linear modeling, as they capture interactions between predictors while producing inherently interpretable models. Despite their popularity, performing inference on the non-linear fit remains largely…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Soham Bakshi , Snigdha Panigrahi

The last decade has shed some light on theoretical properties such as their consistency for regression tasks. In the current paper, we propose a new class of very simple learners based on so-called naive trees. These naive trees partition…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-18 Nico Föge , Markus Pauly , Lena Schmid , Marc Ditzhaus

It is well recognized that the project productivity is a key driver in estimating software project effort from Use Case Point size metric at early software development stages. Although, there are few proposed models for predicting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-18 Mohammad Azzeh , Ali Bou Nassif , Shadi Banitaan , Cuauhtemoc Lopez-Martin

Bayesian Decision Trees are known for their probabilistic interpretability. However, their construction can sometimes be costly. In this article we present a general Bayesian Decision Tree algorithm applicable to both regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-23 Giuseppe Nuti , Lluís Antoni Jiménez Rugama , Andreea-Ingrid Cross

Rapid increase of traffic volume on urban roads over time has changed the traffic scenario globally. It has also increased the ratio of road accidents that can be severe and fatal in the worst case. To improve traffic safety and its…

Other Computer Science · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Muhammad Umer , Saima Sadiq , Abid Ishaq , Saleem Ullah , Najia Saher , Hamza Ahmad Madni

Random Forests and Gradient Boosting are among the most effective algorithms for supervised learning on tabular data. Both belong to the class of tree-based ensemble methods, where predictions are obtained by aggregating many randomized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-02 Mehdi Dagdoug , Clement Dombry , Jean-Jil Duchamps

We establish the first mathematically rigorous link between Bayesian, variational Bayesian, and ensemble methods. A key step towards this it to reformulate the non-convex optimisation problem typically encountered in deep learning as a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-24 Veit David Wild , Sahra Ghalebikesabi , Dino Sejdinovic , Jeremias Knoblauch

Power systems face increasing challenges in maintaining resource adequacy due to lower operating margins, rising renewable energy uncertainty, and demand variability. Forecasting the probability distribution of peak demand on shorter…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-28 Buyi Yu , Wenyuan Tang

Neural Networks and Decision Trees: two popular techniques for supervised learning that are seemingly disconnected in their formulation and optimization method, have recently been combined in a single construct. The connection pivots on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Giuseppe Nuti , Lluís Antoni Jiménez Rugama , Kaspar Thommen

Determining subgroups that respond especially well (or poorly) to specific interventions (medical or policy) requires new supervised learning methods tailored specifically for causal inference. Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF) is a recent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-16 Nikolay Krantsevich , Jingyu He , P. Richard Hahn