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Causal mediation analysis seeks to investigate how the treatment effect of an exposure on outcomes is mediated through intermediate variables. Although many applications involve longitudinal data, the existing methods are not directly…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-24 Shuxi Zeng , Stacy Rosenbaum , Elizabeth Archie , Susan Alberts , Fan Li

Many applications of causal inference require using treatment effects estimated on a study population to make decisions in a separate target population. We consider the challenging setting where there are covariates that are observed in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Khurram Yamin , Vibhhu Sharma , Ed Kennedy , Bryan Wilder

In randomized experiments, covariates are often used to reduce variance and improve the precision of treatment effect estimates. However, in many real-world settings, interference between units, where one unit's treatment affects another's…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-10 Xinyi Wang , Shuangning Li

Estimating the effect of a treatment on a given outcome, conditioned on a vector of covariates, is central in many applications. However, learning the impact of a treatment on a continuous temporal response, when the covariates suffer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-11 Guangyi Zhang , Reza Ashrafi , Anne Juuti , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

Causal indirect and direct effects provide an interpretable method for decomposing the total effect of an exposure on an outcome into the effect through a mediator and the effect through all other pathways. When the mediator is a biomarker,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-02 Ariel Chernofsky , Ronald J. Bosch , Judith J. Lok

Mediation analysis is critical to understanding the mechanisms underlying exposure-outcome relationships. In this paper, we identify the instrumental variable (IV)-direct effect of the exposure on the outcome not through the mediator, using…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Kara E Rudolph , Oleg Sofrygin , Mark J van der Laan

This paper aims to provide practitioners of causal mediation analysis with a better understanding of estimation options. We take as inputs two familiar strategies (weighting and model-based prediction) and a simple way of combining them…

Estimating treatment effects conditional on observed covariates can improve the ability to tailor treatments to particular individuals. Doing so effectively requires dealing with potential confounding, and also enough data to adequately…

In some causal inference scenarios, the treatment variable is measured inaccurately, for instance in epidemiology or econometrics. Failure to correct for the effect of this measurement error can lead to biased causal effect estimates.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Antti Pöllänen , Pekka Marttinen

We propose semi- and non-parametric methods to estimate conditional interventional effects in the setting of two discrete mediators whose causal ordering is unknown. Average interventional indirect effects have been shown to decompose an…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-19 Max Rubinstein , Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy

Many epidemiological questions concern potential interventions to alter the pathways presumed to mediate an association. For example, we consider a study that investigates the benefit of interventions in young adulthood for ameliorating the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-14 Margarita Moreno-Betancur , Paul Moran , Denise Becker , George C Patton , John B Carlin

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-18 Saksham Jain , Alex Luedtke

Decomposing a total causal effect into natural direct and indirect effects is central to revealing causal mechanisms. Conventional methods achieve the decomposition by specifying an outcome model as a linear function of the treatment, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-05 Guanglei Hong

A parametric expression for causal natural direct and indirect effects is derived for the setting of a binary outcome with a binary mediator. The proposed effect decomposition does not require the outcome to be rare and generalizes the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-13 Marco Doretti , Martina Raggi , Elena Stanghellini

Longitudinal processes often unfold concurrently where the growth of two or more longitudinal outcomes are associated. Additionally, if the study under investigation is long, the growth curves may exhibit nonconstant change with respect to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-23 Jin Liu , Robert A. Perera

In this paper I derive a set of testable implications for econometric models defined by three assumptions: (i) the existence of strictly exogenous discrete instruments, (ii) restrictions on how the instruments affect adoption of a finite…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-22 Ricardo E. Miranda

Causal mediation analysis decomposes the total effect of a treatment on an outcome into the indirect effect, operating through the mediator, and the direct effect, operating through other pathways. One can estimate only the pure indirect…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-16 Vindyani Herath , Ronald J. Bosch , Judith J. Lok

Instrumental variables are a popular study design for the estimation of treatment effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. In the canonical instrumental variables design, the instrument is a binary variable. In many settings,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Prabrisha Rakshit , Alexander Levis , Luke Keele

We demonstrate a comprehensive semiparametric approach to causal mediation analysis, addressing the complexities inherent in settings with longitudinal and continuous treatments, confounders, and mediators. Our methodology utilizes a…

We develop a novel test of the instrumental variable identifying assumptions for heterogeneous treatment effect models with conditioning covariates. We assume semiparametric dependence between potential outcomes and conditioning covariates.…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-19 Thomas Carr , Toru Kitagawa
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