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Marginal structural models are a popular method for estimating causal effects in the presence of time-varying exposures. In spite of their popularity, no scalable non-parametric estimator exist for marginal structural models with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-30 Axel Martin , Michele Santacatterina , Iván Díaz

In clinical trials, principal stratification analysis is commonly employed to address the issue of truncation by death, where a subject dies before the outcome can be measured. However, in practice, many survivor outcomes may remain…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Wei Li , Yuan Liu , Shanshan Luo , Zhi Geng

In many empirical settings, directly observing a treatment variable may be infeasible although an error-prone surrogate measurement of the latter will often be available. Causal inference based solely on the surrogate measurement is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-26 Ying Zhou , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Recent research in causal inference has made important progress in addressing challenges to the external validity of trial findings. Such methods weight trial participant data to more closely resemble the distribution of effect-modifying…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-18 Justin M. Clark , Kollin W. Rott , James S. Hodges , Jared D. Huling

Structural Nested Mean Models (SNMMs) are useful for causal inference of treatment effects in longitudinal observational studies. Most existing works assume that the data are collected at pre-fixed time points for all subjects, which,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-13 Shu Yang

Propensity score trimming, which discards subjects with propensity scores below a threshold, is a common way to address positivity violations that complicate causal effect estimation. However, most works on trimming assume treatment is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-31 Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman

Principal stratification analysis evaluates how causal effects of a treatment on a primary outcome vary across strata of units defined by their treatment effect on some intermediate quantity. This endeavor is substantially challenged when…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-21 Chanmin Kim , Corwin Zigler

Principal stratification provides a causal inference framework for investigating treatment effects in the presence of a post-treatment variable. Principal strata play a key role in characterizing the treatment effect by identifying groups…

Area-specific causal inference is important in many policy and survey applications, where the goal is to evaluate treatment effects for small geographic or demographic domains. Existing causal small area estimation methods, however,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Tsubasa Ito , Shonosuke Sugasawa

This research was motivated by studying anti-drug antibody (ADA) formation and its potential impact on long-term benefit of a biologic treatment in a randomized controlled trial, in which ADA status was not only unobserved in the control…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-13 Shengchun Kong , Dominik Heinzmann , Sabine Lauer , Tian Lu

Instrumental variables are commonly used to estimate effects of a treatment afflicted by unmeasured confounding, and in practice instruments are often continuous (e.g., measures of distance, or treatment preference). However, available…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-05 Edward H. Kennedy , Scott A. Lorch , Dylan S. Small

Local variable selection aims to test for the effect of covariates on an outcome within specific regions. We outline a challenge that arises in the presence of non-linear effects and model misspecification. Specifically, for common…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-02 David Rossell , Arnold Kisuk Kseung , Ignacio Saez , Michele Guindani

We study estimation and inference for heterogeneous principal causal effects with binary treatments and binary intermediate variables. Principal causal effects are subgroup effects within strata defined by potential values of an…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-11 Rui Zhang , Charles R. Doss , Jared D. Huling

This paper studies nonparametric local (over-)identification and the semiparametric efficiency in modern causal frameworks. We develop a unified approach that begins by translating structural models with latent variables into their induced…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-02 Xiaohong Chen , Haitian Xie

An essential goal of program evaluation and scientific research is the investigation of causal mechanisms. Over the past several decades, causal mediation analysis has been used in medical and social sciences to decompose the treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-15 K. C. G. Chan , K. Imai , S. C. P. Yam , Z. Zhang

Skepticism about the assumption of no unmeasured confounding, also known as exchangeability, is often warranted in making causal inferences from observational data; because exchangeability hinges on an investigator's ability to accurately…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-22 Yifan Cui , Hongming Pu , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a flexible modeling technique that has been used in a broad range of small-area estimation problems. Traditionally, MRP studies have been focused on non-causal settings, where estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-24 Yuxiang Gao , Lauren Kennedy , Daniel Simpson

We study estimation and inference on causal parameters under finely stratified rerandomization designs, which use baseline covariates to match units into groups (e.g. matched pairs), then rerandomize within-group treatment assignments until…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-07 Max Cytrynbaum

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Zheng Li , Xichen Guo , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Zhi Geng

Post-treatment confounding is a common problem in causal inference, including special cases of noncompliance, truncation by death, surrogate endpoint, etc. Principal stratification (Frangakis and Rubin 2002) is a general framework for…

Computation · Statistics 2023-04-07 Bo Liu , Fan Li