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A model is considered well-calibrated when its probability estimate aligns with the actual likelihood of the output being correct. Calibrating language models (LMs) is crucial, as it plays a vital role in detecting and mitigating…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Xin Liu , Muhammad Khalifa , Lu Wang

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in various natural language processing tasks, yet they often struggle with maintaining factual accuracy, particularly in knowledge-intensive domains like healthcare. This study…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Hieu Tran , Junda Wang , Yujan Ting , Weijing Huang , Terrence Chen

Confidence calibration in LLMs, i.e., aligning their self-assessed confidence with the actual accuracy of their responses, enabling them to self-evaluate the correctness of their outputs. However, current calibration methods for LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-21 Yige Yuan , Bingbing Xu , Hexiang Tan , Fei Sun , Teng Xiao , Wei Li , Huawei Shen , Xueqi Cheng

Uncertainty calibration is essential for the safe deployment of large language models (LLMs), particularly when users rely on verbalized confidence estimates. While prior work has focused on classifiers or short-form generation, confidence…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Chaeyun Jang , Moonseok Choi , Yegon Kim , Hyungi Lee , Juho Lee

Language model outputs are not always reliable, thus prompting research into how to adapt model responses based on uncertainty. Common approaches include: \emph{abstention}, where models refrain from generating responses when uncertain; and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-13 Zhengping Jiang , Anqi Liu , Benjamin Van Durme

To enhance Large Language Models' (LLMs) reliability, calibration is essential -- the model's assessed confidence scores should align with the actual likelihood of its responses being correct. However, current confidence elicitation methods…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Yukun Huang , Yixin Liu , Raghuveer Thirukovalluru , Arman Cohan , Bhuwan Dhingra

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Katherine Tian , Eric Mitchell , Allan Zhou , Archit Sharma , Rafael Rafailov , Huaxiu Yao , Chelsea Finn , Christopher D. Manning

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently produce factually inaccurate outputs - a phenomenon known as hallucination - which limits their accuracy in knowledge-intensive NLP tasks. Retrieval-augmented generation and agentic frameworks such as…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Alexander Murphy , Mohd Sanad Zaki Rizvi , Aden Haussmann , Ping Nie , Guifu Liu , Aryo Pradipta Gema , Pasquale Minervini

A safe and trustworthy use of Large Language Models (LLMs) requires an accurate expression of confidence in their answers. We propose a novel Reinforcement Learning approach that allows to directly fine-tune LLMs to express calibrated…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-03 David Bani-Harouni , Chantal Pellegrini , Paul Stangel , Ege Özsoy , Kamilia Zaripova , Nassir Navab , Matthias Keicher

Large language models (LLMs) are widely deployed as general-purpose problem solvers, making accurate confidence estimation critical for reliable use. Prior work on LLM calibration largely focuses on response-level confidence, which…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Sin-Han Yang , Cheng-Kuang Wu , Chieh-Yen Lin , Yun-Nung Chen , Hung-yi Lee , Shao-Hua Sun

For a LLM to be trustworthy, its confidence level should be well-calibrated with its actual performance. While it is now common sense that LLM performances are greatly impacted by prompts, the confidence calibration in prompting LLMs has…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Xinran Zhao , Hongming Zhang , Xiaoman Pan , Wenlin Yao , Dong Yu , Tongshuang Wu , Jianshu Chen

Uncertainty estimation is a significant issue for current large language models (LLMs) that are generally poorly calibrated and over-confident, especially with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Unlike humans, whose…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-13 Ruixin Yang , Dheeraj Rajagopal , Shirley Anugrah Hayati , Bin Hu , Dongyeop Kang

Large language models (LLMs) often suffer from hallucinations, posing significant challenges for real-world applications. Confidence calibration, as an effective indicator of hallucination, is thus essential to enhance the trustworthiness…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Caiqi Zhang , Ruihan Yang , Zhisong Zhang , Xinting Huang , Sen Yang , Dong Yu , Nigel Collier

Confidence calibration is essential for making large language models (LLMs) reliable, yet existing training-free methods have been primarily studied under single-answer question answering. In this paper, we show that these methods break…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Yuhan Wang , Shiyu Ni , Zhikai Ding , Zihang Zhan , Yuanzi Li , Keping Bi

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable self-improvement capabilities, whereby models iteratively revise their outputs through self-generated feedback. While this reflective mechanism has shown promise in enhancing task…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Liangjie Huang , Dawei Li , Huan Liu , Lu Cheng

Activation oracles aim to make the activations of other models legible to humans and yield promising results compared to white-box interpretability techniques. However, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for the natural-language outputs of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Federico Torrielli , Peter Schneider-Kamp , Lukas Galke Poech

We propose a method for confidence estimation in retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems that aligns closely with the correctness of large language model (LLM) outputs. Confidence estimation is especially critical in high-stakes…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Zhiqi Huang , Vivek Datla , Chenyang Zhu , Alfy Samuel , Daben Liu , Anoop Kumar , Ritesh Soni

Large Reasoning Models achieve strong performance on complex tasks but remain prone to hallucinations, particularly in long-form generation where errors compound across reasoning steps. Existing approaches to improving factuality, including…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Wen Luo , Guangyue Peng , Liang Wang , Nan Yang , Wei Li , Yuhan Song , Shaohang Wei , Feifan Song , Furu Wei , Houfeng Wang

Large language models (LLMs) often hallucinate in long-form generation. Existing approaches mainly improve factuality through post-hoc revision or reinforcement learning (RL) with correctness-based rewards, but they do not teach the model…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Xin Liu , Lu Wang

Multilingual pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) are incredibly effective at Question Answering (QA), a core task in Natural Language Understanding, achieving high accuracies on several multilingual benchmarks. However, little is known…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-16 Yahan Yang , Soham Dan , Dan Roth , Insup Lee
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