Related papers: The saddlepoint approximation factors over sample …
A saddlepoint approximation of the Student's t-statistic was derived by Daniels and Young [Biometrika 78 (1991) 169-179] under the very stringent exponential moment condition that requires that the underlying density function go down at…
We consider SDEs of the form $dX_t = |f(X_t)|/t^{\gamma} dt+1/t^{\gamma} dB_t$, where $f(x)$ behaves comparably to $|x|^k$ in a neighborhood of the origin, for $k\in [1,\infty)$. We show that there exists a threshold value…
The problem of reconstructing functions from their asymptotic expansions in powers of a small variable is addressed by deriving a novel type of approximants. The derivation is based on the self-similar approximation theory, which presents…
Motivated by the application of saddlepoint approximations to resampling-based statistical tests, we prove that the Lugannani-Rice formula has vanishing relative error when applied to approximate conditional tail probabilities of averages…
We propose a general framework to study last passage times, suprema and drawdowns of a large class of stochastic processes. A central role in our approach is played by processes of class Sigma. After investigating convergence properties and…
We are interested in modelling Darwinian evolution, resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. Our models are rooted in the microscopic, stochastic description of a population…
In this work we study convergence properties of sparse polynomial approximations for a class of affine parametric saddle point problems. Such problems can be found in many computational science and engineering fields, including the Stokes…
In this paper, we introduce and study a convoluted version of the time fractional Poisson process by taking the discrete convolution with respect to space variable in the system of fractional differential equations that governs its state…
A compound Poisson process whose randomized time is an independent Poisson process is called compound Poisson process with Poisson subordinator. We provide its probability distribution, which is expressed in terms of the Bell polynomials,…
This paper introduces the concept of random context representations for the transition probabilities of a finite-alphabet stochastic process. Processes with these representations generalize context tree processes (a.k.a. variable length…
Gaussian process models are flexible, Bayesian non-parametric approaches to regression. Properties of multivariate Gaussians mean that they can be combined linearly in the manner of additive models and via a link function (like in…
The problem is sequence prediction in the following setting. A sequence x1,..., xn,... of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) mu. After observing each outcome, it is required to…
Partial identification approaches are a flexible and robust alternative to standard point-identification approaches in general instrumental variable models. However, this flexibility comes at the cost of a ``curse of cardinality'': the…
This paper deals with the question of conditional sampling and prediction for the class of stationary max-stable processes which allow for a mixed moving maxima representation. We develop an exact procedure for conditional sampling using…
We consider a discrete-time version of a Hawkes process defined as a Poisson auto-regressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. We allow these parameters to take on negative values, modelling inhibition. More…
Stationary stochastic processes (SPs) are a key component of many probabilistic models, such as those for off-the-grid spatio-temporal data. They enable the statistical symmetry of underlying physical phenomena to be leveraged, thereby…
We introduce a path sampling method for obtaining statistical properties of an arbitrary stochastic dynamics. The method works by decomposing a trajectory in time, estimating the probability of satisfying a progress constraint, modifying…
The distribution of sum of independent non-identical binomial random variables is frequently encountered in areas such as genomics, healthcare, and operations research. Analytical solutions to the density and distribution are usually…
This paper introduces the class of multidimensional self-exciting processes with dependencies (MSPD), which is a unifying writing for a large class of processes: counting, loss, intensity, and also shifted processes. The framework takes…
Using the Wiener-Hopf factorization, it is shown that it is possible to bound the path of an arbitrary Levy process above and below by the paths of two random walks. These walks have the same step distribution, but different random starting…