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Related papers: LLMs Are Prone to Fallacies in Causal Inference

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Numerous benchmarks aim to evaluate the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) for causal inference and reasoning. However, many of them can likely be solved through the retrieval of domain knowledge, questioning whether they achieve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-12 Linying Yang , Vik Shirvaikar , Oscar Clivio , Fabian Falck

In this paper, we compare data generated with mono- and multilingual LLMs spanning a range of model sizes with data provided by human participants in an experimental setting investigating well-established discourse biases. Beyond the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-01-23 Florian Kankowski , Torgrim Solstad , Sina Zarriess , Oliver Bott

One way to address safety risks from large language models (LLMs) is to censor dangerous knowledge from their training data. While this removes the explicit information, implicit information can remain scattered across various training…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Johannes Treutlein , Dami Choi , Jan Betley , Samuel Marks , Cem Anil , Roger Grosse , Owain Evans

Large language models (LLMs) cannot be trusted for economic forecasts during periods covered by their training data. Counterfactual forecasting ability is non-identified when the model has seen the realized values: any observed output is…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-16 Alejandro Lopez-Lira , Yuehua Tang , Mingyin Zhu

Causality knowledge is crucial for many artificial intelligence systems. Conventional textual-based causality knowledge acquisition methods typically require laborious and expensive human annotations. As a result, their scale is often…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-12-15 Hongming Zhang , Yintong Huo , Xinran Zhao , Yangqiu Song , Dan Roth

Large language models (LLMs) typically improve performance by either retrieving semantically similar information, or enhancing reasoning abilities through structured prompts like chain-of-thought. While both strategies are considered…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Yejin Kim , Eojin Kang , Juae Kim , H. Howie Huang

Causal knowledge is vital for effective reasoning in science, as causal relations, unlike correlations, allow one to reason about the outcomes of interventions. Algorithms that can discover causal relations from observational data are based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-12 Anish Dhir , Ciarán M. Lee

In this paper we propose a data intensive approach for inferring sentence-internal temporal relations. Temporal inference is relevant for practical NLP applications which either extract or synthesize temporal information (e.g.,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2011-10-10 M. Lapata , A. Lascarides

Causal reasoning is a core component of intelligence. Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities in generating human-like text, raising questions about whether their responses reflect true understanding or statistical…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Hanna M. Dettki , Brenden M. Lake , Charley M. Wu , Bob Rehder

The presence of latent variables can greatly complicate inferences about causal relations between measured variables from statistical data. In many cases, the presence of latent variables makes it impossible to determine for two measured…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-26 Peter L. Spirtes

Causal structure learning with data from multiple contexts carries both opportunities and challenges. Opportunities arise from considering shared and context-specific causal graphs enabling to generalize and transfer causal knowledge across…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Martin Rabel , Wiebke Günther , Jakob Runge , Andreas Gerhardus

In-context Learning (ICL) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for performing natural language tasks with Large Language Models (LLM) without updating the models' parameters, in contrast to the traditional gradient-based finetuning. The…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Georgios Chochlakis , Alexandros Potamianos , Kristina Lerman , Shrikanth Narayanan

Causal inference permits us to discover covert relationships of various variables in time series. However, in most existing works, the variables mentioned above are the dimensions. The causality between dimensions could be cursory, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-14 Yuanhao Liu , Dehui Du , Zihan Jiang , Anyan Huang , Yiyang Li

Lewis' theory of counterfactuals is the foundation of many contemporary notions of causality. In this paper, we extend this theory in the temporal direction to enable symbolic counterfactual reasoning on infinite sequences, such as…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Bernd Finkbeiner , Julian Siber

Research in Cognitive Science suggests that humans understand and represent knowledge of the world through causal relationships. In addition to observations, they can rely on experimenting and counterfactual reasoning -- i.e. referring to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-24 Kanvaly Fadiga , Etienne Houzé , Ada Diaconescu , Jean-Louis Dessalles

With the advent of larger and more complex deep learning models, such as in Natural Language Processing (NLP), model qualities like explainability and interpretability, albeit highly desirable, are becoming harder challenges to tackle and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-01-30 Amrita Bhattacharjee , Raha Moraffah , Joshua Garland , Huan Liu

Traditional time series analysis has long relied on pattern recognition, trained on static and well-established benchmarks. However, in real-world settings -- where policies shift, human behavior adapts, and unexpected events unfold --…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Xinlei Wang , Mingtian Tan , Jing Qiu , Junhua Zhao , Jinjin Gu

Analogical reasoning -- the capacity to identify and map structural relationships between different domains -- is fundamental to human cognition and learning. Recent studies have shown that large language models (LLMs) can sometimes match…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Sam Musker , Alex Duchnowski , Raphaël Millière , Ellie Pavlick

Causality defines the relationship between cause and effect. In multivariate time series field, this notion allows to characterize the links between several time series considering temporal lags. These phenomena are particularly important…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-01 Antonin Arsac , Aurore Lomet , Jean-Philippe Poli

Large language models (LLMs) excel on a variety of reasoning benchmarks, but previous studies suggest they sometimes struggle to generalize to unseen questions, potentially due to over-reliance on memorized training examples. However, the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Yihuai Hong , Dian Zhou , Meng Cao , Lei Yu , Zhijing Jin
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