Related papers: Modeling, Inference, and Prediction in Mobility-Ba…
It is very important to understand urban mobility patterns because most trips are concentrated in urban areas. In the paper, a new model is proposed to model collective human mobility in urban areas. The model can be applied to predict…
The emergence and spread of deadly pandemics has repeatedly occurred throughout history, causing widespread infections and loss of life. The rapid spread of pandemics have made governments across the world adopt a range of actions,…
We propose a detailed discrete-time model of COVID-19 epidemics coming in two flavours, mean-field and probabilistic. The main contribution lies in several extensions of the basic model that capture i) user mobility - distinguishing…
Epidemiological dynamics are affected by the spatial and demographic structure of the host population. Households and neighbourhoods are known to be important groupings but little is known about the epidemiological interplay between them.…
We study contact epidemic models for the spread of infective diseases in finite populations. The size dependence enters in the infection rate. The dynamics of such models is then analyzed within the deterministic approximation, as well as…
In this paper we study some mathematical models describing evolution of population density and spread of epidemics in population systems in which spatial movement of individuals depends only on the departure and arrival locations and does…
This work presents a model combining the simplest communicable and non-communicable disease models. The latter is, by far, the leading cause of sickness and death in the World, and introduces basal heterogeneity in populations where…
The goal of this article is to analyze some compartmental models specially designed to model the spread of a disease whose transmission has the same features as COVID-19. The major contributions of this article are: (1) Rigorously find…
The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single…
This paper investigates the impact of human activity and mobility (HAM) in the spreading dynamics of an epidemic. Specifically, it explores the interconnections between HAM and its effect on the early spread of the COVID-19 virus. During…
Nowadays, social media is the main tool in our new lives. The outbreak news and all related obtained from social media, and mob events affect the of spread these news fast. Recently, epidemiological models to study disease spread and…
Measures to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic require a mix of logistic, political and social capacity. Depending on the country, different approaches to increase hospitalization capacity or to properly apply lock-downs are…
Predicting the evolution of diseases is challenging, especially when the data availability is scarce and incomplete. The most popular tools for modelling and predicting infectious disease epidemics are compartmental models. They stratify…
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
In this paper we develop statistical methods for causal inference in epidemics. Our focus is in estimating the effect of social mobility on deaths in the Covid-19 pandemic. We propose a marginal structural model motivated by a modified…
This work aims to provide an approach to the macroscopic modeling and simulation of pedestrian flow, coupled with contagion spreading, towards numerical investigation of the effect of certain, macro-control measures on epidemics transport…
Mathematical modeling of epidemic spreading has been widely adopted to estimate the threats of epidemic diseases (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic) as well as to evaluate epidemic control interventions. The indoor place is considered to be a…
We show how one can trace in a systematic way the coarse-grained solutions of individual-based stochastic epidemic models evolving on heterogeneous complex networks with respect to their topological characteristics. In particular, we have…
In regard to infectious diseases socioeconomic determinants are strongly associated with differential exposure and susceptibility however they are seldom accounted for by standard compartmental infectious disease models. These associations…
The recent pandemic emphasized the need to consider the role of human behavior in shaping epidemic dynamics. In particular, it is necessary to extend beyond the classical epidemiological structures to fully capture the interplay between the…