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In the realm of stock prediction, machine learning models encounter considerable obstacles due to the inherent low signal-to-noise ratio and the nonstationary nature of financial markets. These challenges often result in spurious…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-28 Songci Xu , Qiangqiang Cheng , Chi-Guhn Lee

Causal learning has long concerned itself with the accurate recovery of underlying causal mechanisms. Such causal modelling enables better explanations of out-of-distribution data. Prior works on causal learning assume that the high-level…

Conventional supervised learning methods, especially deep ones, are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) examples, largely because the learned representation mixes the semantic factor with the variation factor due to their…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-02 Chang Liu , Xinwei Sun , Jindong Wang , Haoyue Tang , Tao Li , Tao Qin , Wei Chen , Tie-Yan Liu

This paper considers the out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization problem under the setting that both style distribution shift and spurious features exist and domain labels are missing. This setting frequently arises in real-world…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Ruimeng Li , Yuanhao Pu , Zhaoyi Li , Hong Xie , Defu Lian

Current supervised learning can learn spurious correlation during the data-fitting process, imposing issues regarding interpretability, out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, and robustness. To avoid spurious correlation, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-29 Xinwei Sun , Botong Wu , Xiangyu Zheng , Chang Liu , Wei Chen , Tao Qin , Tie-yan Liu

Modern neural networks can assign high confidence to inputs drawn from outside the training distribution, posing threats to models in real-world deployments. While much research attention has been placed on designing new out-of-distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-08 Yifei Ming , Hang Yin , Yixuan Li

A trained neural network can be interpreted as a structural causal model (SCM) that provides the effect of changing input variables on the model's output. However, if training data contains both causal and correlational relationships, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-30 Sai Srinivas Kancheti , Abbavaram Gowtham Reddy , Vineeth N Balasubramanian , Amit Sharma

Neural networks trained with SGD were recently shown to rely preferentially on linearly-predictive features and can ignore complex, equally-predictive ones. This simplicity bias can explain their lack of robustness out of distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-13 Damien Teney , Ehsan Abbasnejad , Simon Lucey , Anton van den Hengel

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization remains a fundamental challenge in real-world classification, where test distributions often differ substantially from training data. Most existing approaches pursue domain-invariant representations,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Chen Cheng , Ang Li

Invariant representation learning (IRL) encourages the prediction from invariant causal features to labels de-confounded from the environments, advancing the technical roadmap of out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. Despite spotlights…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Ziliang Chen , Yongsen Zheng , Zhao-Rong Lai , Quanlong Guan , Liang Lin

Deep generative models have shown tremendous capability in data density estimation and data generation from finite samples. While these models have shown impressive performance by learning correlations among features in the data, some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Aneesh Komanduri , Xintao Wu , Yongkai Wu , Feng Chen

Causal models bring many benefits to decision-making systems (or agents) by making them interpretable, sample-efficient, and robust to changes in the input distribution. However, spurious correlations can lead to wrong causal models and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-09 Sergei Volodin , Nevan Wichers , Jeremy Nixon

Spurious correlations, unstable statistical shortcuts a model can exploit, are expected to degrade performance out-of-distribution (OOD). However, across many popular OOD generalization benchmarks, vanilla empirical risk minimization (ERM)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Olawale Salaudeen , Nicole Chiou , Shiny Weng , Sanmi Koyejo

Predictive models -- learned from observational data not covering the complete data distribution -- can rely on spurious correlations in the data for making predictions. These correlations make the models brittle and hinder generalization.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-16 Khurram Javed , Martha White , Yoshua Bengio

One of the central elements of any causal inference is an object called structural causal model (SCM), which represents a collection of mechanisms and exogenous sources of random variation of the system under investigation (Pearl, 2000). An…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-05 Kevin Xia , Kai-Zhan Lee , Yoshua Bengio , Elias Bareinboim

Recently, generalization on out-of-distribution (OOD) data with correlation shift has attracted great attentions. The correlation shift is caused by the spurious attributes that correlate to the class label, as the correlation between them…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-27 Mingyang Yi , Ruoyu Wang , Jiachen Sun , Zhenguo Li , Zhi-Ming Ma

Machine learning models are known to learn spurious correlations, i.e., features having strong relations with class labels but no causal relation. Relying on those correlations leads to poor performance in the data groups without these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Phuong Quynh Le , Jörg Schlötterer , Christin Seifert

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-06 Shuozhi Zuo , Yixin Wang

Often machine learning models tend to automatically learn associations present in the training data without questioning their validity or appropriateness. This undesirable property is the root cause of the manifestation of spurious…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-17 Preetam Prabhu Srikar Dammu , Chirag Shah

In real-world applications, it is important and desirable to learn a model that performs well on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Recently, causality has become a powerful tool to tackle the OOD generalization problem, with the idea resting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-25 Ruoyu Wang , Mingyang Yi , Zhitang Chen , Shengyu Zhu
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