Related papers: Advancing Solar Flare Prediction using Deep Learni…
We present several methods towards construction of precursors, which show great promise towards early predictions, of solar flare events in this paper. A data pre-processing pipeline is built to extract useful data from multiple sources,…
Solar flares are events of intense scientific interest. Although certain solar conditions are known to be associated with flare activity, the exact location and timing of an individual flare on the Sun cannot as yet be predicted with…
Solar flares, especially C, M, and X class, pose significant risks to satellite operations, communication systems, and power grids. We present a novel approach for predicting extreme solar flares using HMI intensitygrams and magnetograms.…
A deep learning model is often considered a black-box model, as its internal workings tend to be opaque to the user. Because of the lack of transparency, it is challenging to understand the reasoning behind the model's predictions. Here, we…
Predicting the severity of the solar eruptive phenomena like flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) remains a great challenge despite concerted efforts for several decades. The advent of high quality vector magnetograms obtained from…
Here, we developed a complex network of solar active regions (ARs) to study various local and global properties of the network. The values of the Hurst exponent ($0.8-0.9$) were evaluated by both the detrended fluctuation analysis and the…
Automated forecasts serve important role in space weather science, by providing statistical insights to flare-trigger mechanisms, and by enabling tailor-made forecasts and high-frequency forecasts. Only by realtime forecast we can…
Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are an essential source of space radiation, which are hazards for humans in space, spacecraft, and technology in general. In this paper we propose a deep learning method, specifically a bidirectional long…
We describe a new tool developed for solar flare forecasting on the base of some sunspot group properties. Assuming that the flare frequency follows the Poisson statistics, this tool uses a database containing the morphological…
The development of accurate forecasts of solar eruptive activity has become increasingly important for preventing potential impacts on space technologies and exploration. Therefore, it is crucial to detect Active Regions (ARs) before they…
Precisely localising solar Active Regions (AR) from multi-spectral images is a challenging but important task in understanding solar activity and its influence on space weather. A main challenge comes from each modality capturing a…
Solar active regions and the processes that occur in them have been extensively studied and analyzed and many types of models and characterizations have been proposed for the occurrence of different eruptive events that take place in the…
Ahead-of-time forecasting of incident solar-irradiance on a panel is indicative of expected energy yield and is essential for efficient grid distribution and planning. Traditionally, these forecasts are based on meteorological physics…
All three components of the current density are required to compute the heating rate due to free magnetic energy dissipation. Here we present a first test of a new model developed to determine if the times of increases in the resistive…
Prediction of solar flares is an important task in solar physics. The occurrence of solar flares is highly dependent on the structure and the topology of solar magnetic fields. A new method for predicting large (M and X class) flares is…
Among the eruptive activity phenomena observed on the Sun, the most technology threatening ones are flares with associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs). Flares with associated CMEs and SEPs are produced…
We present a case study of solar flare forecasting by means of metadata feature time series, by treating it as a prominent class-imbalance and temporally coherent problem. Taking full advantage of pre-flare time series in solar active…
We study the prediction of solar flare size and time-to-flare using 38 features describing magnetic complexity of the photospheric magnetic field. This work uses support vector regression to formulate a mapping from the 38-dimensional…
We analyze the relationship between the flare X-ray peak flux, and characteristics of the Polarity Inversion Line (PIL) and Active Regions (AR), derived from line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms. The PIL detection algorithm based on a…
The analysis of waves in the visible side of the Sun allows the detection of active regions in the farside through local helioseismology techniques. The knowledge of the magnetism in the whole Sun, including the non-visible hemisphere, is…