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This paper contributes to the growing body of research on deep learning methods for solar flare prediction, primarily focusing on highly overlooked near-limb flares and utilizing the attribution methods to provide a post hoc qualitative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-27 Chetraj Pandey , Rafal A. Angryk , Berkay Aydin

Solar flare prediction is a central problem in space weather forecasting and recent developments in machine learning and deep learning accelerated the adoption of complex models for data-driven solar flare forecasting. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Chetraj Pandey , Anli Ji , Rafal A. Angryk , Berkay Aydin

This study aims to evaluate the performance of deep learning models in predicting $\geq$M-class solar flares with a prediction window of 24 hours, using hourly sampled full-disk line-of-sight (LoS) magnetogram images, particularly focusing…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-06-18 Chetraj Pandey , Rafal A. Angryk , Berkay Aydin

This paper presents a post hoc analysis of a deep learning-based full-disk solar flare prediction model. We used hourly full-disk line-of-sight magnetogram images and selected binary prediction mode to predict the occurrence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Chetraj Pandey , Rafal A. Angryk , Manolis K. Georgoulis , Berkay Aydin

We developed a solar flare prediction model using a deep neural network (DNN), named Deep Flare Net (DeFN). The model can calculate the probability of flares occurring in the following 24 h in each active region, which is used to determine…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-05-23 Naoto Nishizuka , Komei Sugiura , Yuki Kubo , Mitsue Den , Mamoru Ishii

This study progresses solar flare prediction research by presenting a full-disk deep-learning model to forecast $\geq$M-class solar flares and evaluating its efficacy on both central (within $\pm$70$^\circ$) and near-limb (beyond…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-08-31 Chetraj Pandey , Anli Ji , Trisha Nandakumar , Rafal A. Angryk , Berkay Aydin

Solar flare forecasting can be realized by means of the analysis of magnetic data through artificial intelligence techniques. The aim is to predict whether a magnetic active region (AR) will originate solar flares above a certain class…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-06-29 Sabrina Guastavino , Francesco Marchetti , Federico Benvenuto , Cristina Campi , Michele Piana

Accurate and reliable predictions of solar flares are essential due to their potentially significant impact on Earth and space-based infrastructure. Although deep learning models have shown notable predictive capabilities in this domain,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-28 Temitope Adeyeha , Chetraj Pandey , Berkay Aydin

Solar flares are caused by magnetic eruptions in active regions (ARs) on the surface of the sun. These events can have significant impacts on human activity, many of which can be mitigated with enough advance warning from good forecasts. To…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-09-18 Varad Deshmukh , Thomas Berger , James Meiss , Elizabeth Bradley

Solar flares are intense eruptive events caused by the rapid release of magnetic energy, often impacting Earth's space environment through electromagnetic radiation and high-energy particles. Accurate flare prediction is critical for space…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-19 Limin Zhao , Xingyao Chen , Xiaoshuai Zhu , Dong Zhao , and Yihua Yan

Recently, there has been growing interest in the use of machine-learning methods for predicting solar flares. Initial efforts along these lines employed comparatively simple models, correlating features extracted from observations of…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-06-21 Varad Deshmukh , Srinivas Baskar , Elizabeth Bradley , Thomas Berger , James D. Meiss

Solar flares are explosions on the Sun. They happen when energy stored in magnetic fields around solar active regions (ARs) is suddenly released. In this paper, we present a transformer-based framework, named SolarFlareNet, for predicting…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-05-28 Yasser Abduallah , Jason T. L. Wang

We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…

We developed a reliable probabilistic solar flare forecasting model using a deep neural network, named Deep Flare Net-Reliable (DeFN-R). The model can predict the maximum classes of flares that occur in the following 24 h after observing…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-09-02 Naoto Nishizuka , Yûki Kubo , Komei Sugiura , Mitsue Den , Mamoru Ishii

Solar flares emanate from solar active regions hosting complex and strong bipolar magnetic fluxes. Estimating the probability of an active region to flare and defining reliable precursors of intense flares is an extremely challenging task…

Accurate, reliable solar flare prediction is crucial for mitigating potential disruptions to critical infrastructure, while predicting solar flares remains a significant challenge. Existing methods based on heuristic physical features often…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Shunya Nagashima , Komei Sugiura

Over the past few decades, many applications of physics-based simulations and data-driven techniques (including machine learning and deep learning) have emerged to analyze and predict solar flares. These approaches are pivotal in…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-02-07 Anli Ji , Berkay Aydin

A deep learning network, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) network, is used in this work to predict whether the maximum flare class an active region (AR) will produce in the next 24 hours is class $\Gamma$. We considered $\Gamma$ are $\ge M$,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-05-27 Xiantong Wang , Yang Chen , Gabor Toth , Ward B. Manchester , Tamas I. Gombosi , Alfred O. Hero , Zhenbang Jiao , Hu Sun , Meng Jin , Yang Liu

With machine learning entering into the awareness of the heliophysics community, solar flare prediction has become a topic of increased interest. Although machine learning models have advanced with each successive publication, the input…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-03-11 Brandon Panos , Lucia Kleint

Solar flares originate from magnetically active regions but not all solar active regions give rise to a flare. Therefore, the challenge of solar flare prediction benefits by an intelligent computational analysis of physics-based properties…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-10-09 Cristina Campi , Federico Benvenuto , Anna Maria Massone , D Shaun Bloomfield , Manolis K Georgoulis , Michele Piana
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