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Traditional regulations of chemical exposure tend to focus on single exposures, overlooking the potential amplified toxicity due to multiple concurrent exposures. We are interested in understanding the average outcome if exposures were…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-01 David McCoy , Alan Hubbard , Alejandro Schuler , Mark van der Laan

Studies have shown that exposure to air pollution, even at low levels, significantly increases mortality. As regulatory actions are becoming prohibitively expensive, robust evidence to guide the development of targeted interventions to…

Applications · Statistics 2018-02-20 Kwonsang Lee , Dylan S. Small , Francesca Dominici

We often seek to estimate the impact of an exposure naturally occurring or randomly assigned at the cluster-level. For example, the literature on neighborhood determinants of health continues to grow. Likewise, community randomized trials…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-08 Laura B. Balzer , Wenjing Zheng , Mark J. van der Laan , Maya L. Petersen

Quantifying the heterogeneity of treatment effect is important for understanding how a commercial product or medical treatment affects different population subgroups. While much of treatment effect heterogeneity analysis focuses on the…

In biomedical science, analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity plays an essential role in assisting personalized medicine. The main goals of analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity include estimating treatment effects in clinically…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-06 Waverly Wei , Maya Petersen , Mark J van der Laan , Zeyu Zheng , Chong Wu , Jingshen Wang

Unlike the commonly used parametric regression models such as mixed models, that can easily violate the required statistical assumptions and result in invalid statistical inference, target maximum likelihood estimation allows more realistic…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-17 Chi Zhang , Jennifer Ahern , Mark J. van der Laan

Effect modification occurs when the effect of the treatment on an outcome differs according to the level of a third variable (the effect modifier, EM). A natural way to assess effect modification is by subgroup analysis or include the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-22 Asma Bahamyirou , Mireille E. Schnitzer , Edward H. Kennedy , Lucie Blais , Yi Yang

We propose Deep Longitudinal Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation (Deep LTMLE), a novel approach to estimate the counterfactual mean of outcome under dynamic treatment policies in longitudinal problem settings. Our approach utilizes a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-09 Toru Shirakawa , Yi Li , Yulun Wu , Sky Qiu , Yuxuan Li , Mingduo Zhao , Hiroyasu Iso , Mark van der Laan

A primary concern of public health researchers involves identifying and quantifying heterogeneous exposure effects across population subgroups. Understanding the magnitude and direction of these effects on a given scale provides researchers…

Applications · Statistics 2024-01-30 Michael Cheung , Anna Dimitrova , Tarik Benmarhnia

We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects from time-to-event data. While both the related problems of (i) estimating treatment effects for binary or continuous outcomes and (ii) predicting survival outcomes have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Alicia Curth , Changhee Lee , Mihaela van der Schaar

Longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation (LTMLE) has very rarely been used to estimate dynamic treatment effects in the context of time-dependent confounding affected by prior treatment when faced with long follow-up times,…

Observational epidemiological studies commonly seek to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. Adjustment for potential confounding bias in modern studies is challenging due to the presence of high-dimensional confounding,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-29 Susan Ellul , Stijn Vansteelandt , John B. Carlin , Margarita Moreno-Betancur

This study introduces a nonparametric definition of interaction and provides an approach to both interaction discovery and efficient estimation of this parameter. Using stochastic shift interventions and ensemble machine learning, our…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-01 David B. McCoy , Alan E. Hubbard , Alejandro Schuler , Mark J. van der Laan

Understanding effect modification -- how treatment effects vary across subpopulations -- is practically important in observational studies, as it helps identify which subgroups are likely to benefit from a given treatment. In this paper, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Yu Gui , Dylan S Small , Zhimei Ren

Over the past years, many applications aim to assess the causal effect of treatments assigned at the community level, while data are still collected at the individual level among individuals of the community. In many cases, one wants to…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-16 Chi Zhang , Jennifer Ahern , Mark J. van der Laan , Oleg Sofrygin

Estimating personalized effects of treatments is a complex, yet pervasive problem. To tackle it, recent developments in the machine learning (ML) literature on heterogeneous treatment effect estimation gave rise to many sophisticated, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Jonathan Crabbé , Alicia Curth , Ioana Bica , Mihaela van der Schaar

Heterogeneous treatment effects are driven by treatment effect modifiers, pre-treatment covariates that modify the effect of a treatment on an outcome. Current approaches for uncovering these variables are limited to low-dimensional data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-12 Philippe Boileau , Ning Leng , Nima S. Hejazi , Mark van der Laan , Sandrine Dudoit

With an increasing focus on precision medicine in medical research, numerous studies have been conducted in recent years to clarify the relationship between treatment effects and patient characteristics. The treatment effects for patients…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-22 Ke Wan , Kensuke Tanioka , Toshio Shimokawa

Understanding the effects of quarantine policies in populations with underlying social networks is crucial for public health, yet most causal inference methods fail here due to their assumption of independent individuals. We introduce…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Suhan Guo , Furao Shen , Ni Li

Analyzing data from multiple sources offers valuable opportunities to improve the estimation efficiency of causal estimands. However, this analysis also poses many challenges due to population heterogeneity and data privacy constraints.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-23 Rong Zhao , Jason Falvey , Xu Shi , Vernon M. Chinchilli , Chixiang Chen
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