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Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) provides a practical and effective approach for equipping deep learning models with uncertainty estimates in the form of set-valued predictions which are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Apoorva Sharma , Sushant Veer , Asher Hancock , Heng Yang , Marco Pavone , Anirudha Majumdar

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-06 Margaux Zaffran , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Julie Josse , Yaniv Romano

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

For any black-box model, conformal prediction (CP) returns prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with high adjustable probability. Robust CP (RCP) extends the guarantee to the worst case noise up to a pre-defined magnitude.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Mohammad Sadegh Akhondzadeh , Aleksandar Bojchevski

In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-29 Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

The property of conformal predictors to guarantee the required accuracy rate makes this framework attractive in various practical applications. However, this property is achieved at a price of reduction in precision. In the case of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-13 Marharyta Aleksandrova , Oleg Chertov

Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li

Standard conformal prediction methods provide a marginal coverage guarantee, which means that for a random test point, the conformal prediction set contains the true label with a user-specified probability. In many classification problems,…

Conformal prediction methods are statistical tools designed to quantify uncertainty and generate predictive sets with guaranteed coverage probabilities. This work introduces an innovative refinement to these methods for classification…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-04 Jean-Baptiste Fermanian , Mohamed Hebiri , Joseph Salmon

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Recent work develops online conformal prediction methods that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Huajun Xi , Kangdao Liu , Hao Zeng , Wenguang Sun , Hongxin Wei

Sequential estimation of a probability $p$ by means of inverse binomial sampling is considered. For $\mu_1,\mu_2>1$ given, the accuracy of an estimator $\hat{p}$ is measured by the confidence level $P[p/\mu_2\leq\hat{p}\leq p\mu_1]$. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-12 Luis Mendo , José M. Hernando

Zero-inflated outcomes, where responses are zero with positive probability and otherwise continuous, are common in biomedical, environmental, and social science studies. We propose a conformal prediction based framework that provides…

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Conformal prediction constructs a set of labels instead of a single point prediction, while providing a probabilistic coverage guarantee. Beyond the coverage guarantee, adaptiveness to example difficulty is an important property. It means…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Sooyong Jang , Insup Lee

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-08 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates

We develop a new approach to multi-label conformal prediction in which we aim to output a precise set of promising prediction candidates with a bounded number of incorrect answers. Standard conformal prediction provides the ability to adapt…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-16 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Conformal prediction is a framework for providing prediction intervals with distribution-free validity, guaranteeing predictive coverage for data drawn from any distribution. Its two main variants are full conformal prediction and split…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Boxuan Zhang , Rina Foygel Barber

Conformal inference has played a pivotal role in providing uncertainty quantification for black-box ML prediction algorithms with finite sample guarantees. Traditionally, conformal prediction inference requires a data-independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 Siddhaarth Sarkar , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Conformal prediction has recently emerged as a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of a predictive model; these algorithms modify the model to output sets of labels that are guaranteed to contain the true label with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Botong Zhang , Shuo Li , Osbert Bastani