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We study sequential experiments where sampling is costly and a decision-maker aims to determine the best treatment for full scale implementation by (1) adaptively allocating units between two possible treatments, and (2) stopping the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-06 Karun Adusumilli

In the best choice problem with random arrivals, an unknown number $n$ of rankable items arrive at times sampled from the uniform distribution. As is well known, a real-time player can ensure stopping at the overall best item with…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-09 Alexander Gnedin

In this paper we consider the problem of uniformity testing with limited memory. We observe a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables drawn from a distribution $p$ over $[n]$, which is either uniform or is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Tomer Berg , Or Ordentlich , Ofer Shayevitz

In this paper, we study the optimal multiple stopping problem under the filtration consistent nonlinear expectations. The reward is given by a set of random variables satisfying some appropriate assumptions rather than an RCLL process. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-21 Hanwu Li

We introduce a new non-zero-sum game of optimal stopping with asymmetric exercise opportunities. Given a stochastic process modelling the value of an asset, one player observes and can act on the process continuously, while the other player…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-16 José Luis Pérez , Neofytos Rodosthenous , Kazutoshi Yamazaki

We study the sequence alignment problem and its independent version, the discrete Hammersley process with an exploration penalty. We obtain rigorous upper bounds for the number of optimality regions in both models near the soft edge. At…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-14 Nicos Georgiou , Janosch Ortmann

An important question for a probabilistic program is whether the probability mass of all its diverging runs is zero, that is that it terminates "almost surely". Proving that can be hard, and this paper presents a new method for doing so; it…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2017-12-27 Annabelle McIver , Carroll Morgan , Benjamin Lucien Kaminski , Joost-Pieter Katoen

Dedicated to the memory of Professor Tze Leung Lai, this paper introduces three multi-hypothesis sequential tests. These tests are derived from one-sided versions of the sequential probability ratio test and its modifications. They are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-03 Alexander G. Tartakovsky

In this paper we study randomized optimal stopping problems and consider corresponding forward and backward Monte Carlo based optimisation algorithms. In particular we prove the convergence of the proposed algorithms and derive the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-02-05 Christian Bayer , Denis Belomestny , Paul Hager , Paolo Pigato , John Schoenmakers

Detection of rare traits or diseases in a large population is challenging. Pool testing allows covering larger swathes of population at a reduced cost, while simplifying logistics. However, testing precision decreases as it becomes unclear…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-06-22 Éric Brier , Megi Dervishi , Rémi Géraud-Stewart , David Naccache , Ofer Yifrach-Stav

We propose upper and lower bounds on the maximum success probability for discriminating given quantum states. The proposed upper bound is obtained from a suboptimal solution to the dual problem of the corresponding optimal state…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-01-12 Kenji Nakahira , Tsuyoshi Sasaki Usuda , Kentaro Kato

We consider POMDPs in which the weight of the stage payoff depends on the past sequence of signals and actions occurring in the infinitely repeated problem. We prove that for all epsilon>0, there exists a strategy that is epsilon-optimal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-04-21 Xavier Venel , Bruno Ziliotto

In a classical optimal stopping problem in continuous time, the agent can choose any stopping time without constraint. Dupuis and Wang (Optimal stopping with random intervention times, Advances in Applied Probability, 34, 141--157, 2002)…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-23 David Hobson , Matthew Zeng

We employ a natural method from the perspective of the optimal stopping theory to analyze entry-exit decisions with implementation delay of a project, and provide closed expressions for optimal entry decision times, optimal exit decision…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-12-01 Yong-Chao Zhang

Using techniques from Poisson approximation, we prove explicit error bounds on the number of permutations that avoid any pattern. Most generally, we bound the total variation distance between the joint distribution of pattern occurrences…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2023-06-22 Harry Crane , Stephen DeSalvo

In this work we offer an $O(|V|^2 |E|\, W)$ pseudo-polynomial time deterministic algorithm for solving the Value Problem and Optimal Strategy Synthesis in Mean Payoff Games. This improves by a factor $\log(|V|\, W)$ the best previously…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2016-04-26 Carlo Comin , Romeo Rizzi

Given an initial (resp., terminal) probability measure $\mu$ (resp., $\nu$) on $\mathbb{R}^d$, we characterize those optimal stopping times $\tau$ that maximize or minimize the functional $\mathbb{E} |B_0 - B_\tau|^{\alpha}$, $\alpha > 0$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-09 Nassif Ghoussoub , Young-Heon Kim , Tongseok Lim

In this paper, we consider a class of stochastic optimal control problems with risk constraints that are expressed as bounded probabilities of failure for particular initial states. We present here a martingale approach that diffuses a risk…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-07-09 Vu Anh Huynh , Leonid Kogan , Emilio Frazzoli

We formulate an optimal stopping problem for a geometric Brownian motion where the probability scale is distorted by a general nonlinear function. The problem is inherently time inconsistent due to the Choquet integration involved. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-07 Zuo Quan Xu , Xun Yu Zhou

Consider the multiple testing problem of testing k null hypotheses, where the unknown family of distributions is assumed to satisfy a certain monotonicity assumption. Attention is restricted to procedures that control the familywise error…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 E. L. Lehmann , Joseph P. Romano , Juliet Popper Shaffer