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Clinical trials of a vaccine during an epidemic face particular challenges, such as the pressure to identify an effective vaccine quickly to control the epidemic, and the effect that time-space-varying infection incidence has on the power…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-21 Rob Johnson , Chris Jackson , Anne Presanis , Sofia S. Villar , Daniela De Angelis

No unmeasured confounding is a common assumption when reasoning about counterfactual outcomes, but such an assumption may not be plausible in observational studies. Sensitivity analysis is often employed to assess the robustness of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-20 Abhinandan Dalal , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Design-based frameworks of uncertainty are frequently used in settings where the treatment is (conditionally) randomly assigned. This paper develops a design-based framework suitable for analyzing quasi-experimental settings in the social…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-17 Ashesh Rambachan , Jonathan Roth

Testing of symptomatic persons for infection with SARS-CoV-2 is occurring worldwide. We propose two types of case-control studies that can be carried out jointly in test-settings for symptomatic persons. The first, the test-negative…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-06-08 Jan P Vandenbroucke , Elizabeth B Brickley , Christina M J E Vandenbroucke-Grauls , Neil Pearce

The understanding of the public response to COVID-19 vaccines is the key success factor to control the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand the public response, there is a need to explore public opinion. Traditional surveys are expensive and…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-09-30 Amir Karami , Michael Zhu , Bailey Goldschmidt , Hannah R. Boyajieff , Mahdi M. Najafabadi

During the COVID-19 pandemic, estimating the total deaths averted by vaccination has been of great public health interest. Instead of estimating total deaths averted by vaccination among both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, some…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-10-09 Katherine M. Jia , Christopher B. Boyer , Alyssa Bilinski , Marc Lipsitch

In order to meet regulatory approval, pharmaceutical companies often must demonstrate that new vaccines reduce the total risk of a post-infection outcome like transmission, symptomatic disease, severe illness, or death in randomized,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-23 Rob Trangucci , Yang Chen , Jon Zelner

Cluster-randomized trials are often conducted to assess vaccine effects. Defining estimands of interest before conducting a trial is integral to the alignment between a study's objectives and the data to be collected and analyzed. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-10 Kayla W. Kilpatrick , Michael G. Hudgens , M. Elizabeth Halloran

When constructing a model to estimate the causal effect of a treatment, it is necessary to control for other factors which may have confounding effects. Because the ignorability assumption is not testable, however, it is usually unclear…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-07 Spencer Woody , Carlos M. Carvalho , Jared S. Murray

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

The potential waning of the vaccination immunity to COVID-19 could pose threats to public health, as it is tenable that the timing of such waning would synchronize with the near-complete restoration of normalcy. Should also testing be…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-01-28 Agnieszka Truszkowska , Lorenzo Zino , Sachit Butail , Emanuele Caroppo , Zhong-Ping Jiang , Alessandro Rizzo , Maurizio Porfiri

Causal mediation analysis provides techniques for defining and estimating effects that may be endowed with mechanistic interpretations. With many scientific investigations seeking to address mechanistic questions, causal direct and indirect…

Split-plot designs find wide applicability in multifactor experiments with randomization restrictions. Practical considerations often warrant the use of unbalanced designs. This paper investigates randomization based causal inference in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-21 Rahul Mukerjee , Tirthankar Dasgupta

Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Niloofar Moosavi , Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna

Bipartite experiments arise in various fields, in which the treatments are randomized over one set of units, while the outcomes are measured over another separate set of units. However, existing methods often rely on strong model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Sizhu Lu , Lei Shi , Yue Fang , Wenxin Zhang , Peng Ding

In observational studies, the identification of causal estimands depends on the no unmeasured confounding (NUC) assumption. As this assumption is not testable from observed data, sensitivity analysis plays an important role in observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-28 Md Abdul Basit , Mahbub A. H. M. Latif , Abdus S Wahed

One of the fundamental challenges in drawing causal inferences from observational studies is that the assumption of no unmeasured confounding is not testable from observed data. Therefore, assessing sensitivity to this assumption's…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-25 Md Abdul Basit , Mahbub A. H. M. Latif , Abdus S Wahed

The COVID-19 pandemic forced the rapid development of vaccines and the implementation of mass vaccination programs around the world. However, many hesitated to take the vaccine due to concerns about its effectiveness. By looking at an…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-10-15 Ma. Cristina R. Bargo

Understanding how the causal effect of a treatment evolves over time, including the potential for waning, is important for informed decisions on treatment discontinuation or repetition. For example, waning vaccine protection influences…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-25 Eni Musta , Joris Mooij

COVID-19 vaccines are highly efficacious at preventing symptomatic infection, severe disease, and death. Most of the evidence that COVID-19 vaccines also reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is based on retrospective, observational studies.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-06-16 Marlena S. Bannick , Fei Gao , Elizabeth R. Brown , Holly E. Janes