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Measurement error arises through a variety of mechanisms. A rich literature exists on the bias introduced by covariate measurement error and on methods of analysis to address this bias. By comparison, less attention has been given to errors…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-27 Pamela Shaw , Jiwei He , Bryan Shepherd

Reliable uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks is very crucial in safety-critical applications such as automated driving for trustworthy and informed decision-making. Assessing the quality of uncertainty estimates is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-12 Neslihan Kose , Ranganath Krishnan , Akash Dhamasia , Omesh Tickoo , Michael Paulitsch

State of the art Deep Neural Networks (DNN) can now achieve above human level accuracy on image classification tasks. However their outstanding performances come along with a complex inference mechanism making them arduously interpretable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-07 Fei Wu , Thomas Michel , Alexandre Briot

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-23 Carlos Mougan , Dan Saattrup Nielsen

In this paper, we leverage predictive uncertainty of deep neural networks to answer challenging questions material scientists usually encounter in machine learning based materials applications workflows. First, we show that by leveraging…

Materials Science · Physics 2021-04-26 Jize Zhang , Bhavya Kailkhura , T. Yong-Jin Han

A robust estimation framework for binary regression models is studied, aiming to extend traditional approaches like logistic regression models. While previous studies largely focused on logistic models, we explore a broader class of models…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-24 Kenichi Hayashi , Shinto Eguchi

The proliferation of Deep Neural Networks has resulted in machine learning systems becoming increasingly more present in various real-world applications. Consequently, there is a growing demand for highly reliable models in many domains,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Pedro Conde , Rui L. Lopes , Cristiano Premebida

The application of machine learning to physics problems is widely found in the scientific literature. Both regression and classification problems are addressed by a large array of techniques that involve learning algorithms. Unfortunately,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-03 Umberto Michelucci , Francesca Venturini

Calibration$\unicode{x2014}$the problem of ensuring that predicted probabilities align with observed class frequencies$\unicode{x2014}$is a basic desideratum for reliable prediction with machine learning systems. Calibration error is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-02 Eugène Berta , Sacha Braun , David Holzmüller , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

There is significant need for principled uncertainty reasoning in machine learning systems as they are increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains. A new approach with uncertainty-aware neural networks (NNs), based on learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-25 Nis Meinert , Alexander Lavin

Aleatoric uncertainty captures the inherent randomness of the data, such as measurement noise. In Bayesian regression, we often use a Gaussian observation model, where we control the level of aleatoric uncertainty with a noise variance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-31 Sanyam Kapoor , Wesley J. Maddox , Pavel Izmailov , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Predictive algorithms inform consequential decisions in settings with selective labels: outcomes are observed only for units selected by past decision makers. This creates an identification problem under unobserved confounding -- when…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-07 Ashesh Rambachan , Amanda Coston , Edward Kennedy

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in metrology applications. However, for ML models to be credible in a metrology context they should be accompanied by principled uncertainty quantification. This paper addresses the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-09 Andrew Thompson

Due to the growing adoption of deep neural networks in many fields of science and engineering, modeling and estimating their uncertainties has become of primary importance. Despite the growing literature about uncertainty quantification in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-15 Brian Staber , Sébastien Da Veiga

The same machine learning model running on different edge devices may produce highly-divergent outputs on a nearly-identical input. Possible reasons for the divergence include differences in the device sensors, the device's signal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Eyal Cidon , Evgenya Pergament , Zain Asgar , Asaf Cidon , Sachin Katti

Anomaly detection is a branch of data analysis and machine learning which aims at identifying observations that exhibit abnormal behaviour. Be it measurement errors, disease development, severe weather, production quality default(s) (items)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-11 Pavlo Mozharovskyi , Romain Valla

In this paper, we introduce a new technique that combines two popular methods to estimate uncertainty in object detection. Quantifying uncertainty is critical in real-world robotic applications. Traditional detection models can be ambiguous…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-06-30 Zongyao Lyu , Nolan B. Gutierrez , William J. Beksi

Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic approach to generating prediction sets that cover the true class with a high probability. Although its prediction set size is expected to capture aleatoric uncertainty, there is a lack of evidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Misgina Tsighe Hagos , Claes Lundström

A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Muthu Chidambaram , Rong Ge

As deep neural networks are highly expressive, it is important to find solutions with small generalization gap (the difference between the performance on the training data and unseen data). Focusing on the stochastic nature of training, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Rie Johnson , Tong Zhang