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Foundational marked temporal point process (MTPP) models, such as the Hawkes process, often use inexpressive model families in order to offer interpretable parameterizations of event data. On the other hand, neural MTPPs models forego this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-04 Alex Boyd , Andrew Warrington , Taha Kass-Hout , Parminder Bhatia , Danica Xiao

Many scientific problems require identifying a small set of covariates that are associated with a target response and estimating their effects. Often, these effects are nonlinear and include interactions, so linear and additive methods can…

Computation · Statistics 2022-12-02 Raj Agrawal , Tamara Broderick

Sequences of events including infectious disease outbreaks, social network activities, and crimes are ubiquitous and the data on such events carry essential information about the underlying diffusion processes between communities (e.g.,…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Maya Okawa , Tomoharu Iwata , Yusuke Tanaka , Hiroyuki Toda , Takeshi Kurashima , Hisashi Kashima

This paper proposes a new approach for change point detection in multivariate Hawkes processes using Fr\'echet statistic of a network. The method splits the point process into overlapping windows, estimates kernel matrices in each window,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-23 Rui Luo , Vikram Krishnamurthy

Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-12 Achraf Bahamou , Maud Doumergue , Philippe Donnat

Predicting discrete events in time and space has many scientific applications, such as predicting hazardous earthquakes and outbreaks of infectious diseases. History-dependent spatio-temporal Hawkes processes are often used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Negar Erfanian , Santiago Segarra , Maarten de Hoop

This paper develops a frequentist solution to the functional calibration problem, where the value of a calibration parameter in a computer model is allowed to vary with the value of control variables in the physical system. The need of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-20 Rui Tuo , Shiyuan He , Arash Pourhabib , Yu Ding , Jianhua Z. Huang

We propose a novel test procedure for comparing mean functions across two groups within the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) framework. Our proposed method is adept at handling sparsely and irregularly sampled functional data when…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-29 Chi Zhang , Peijun Sang , Yingli Qin

Reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) are key elements of many non-parametric tools successfully used in signal processing, statistics, and machine learning. In this work, we aim to address three issues of the classical RKHS based…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-05-09 Maria Peifer , Luiz. F. O. Chamon , Santiago Paternain , Alejandro Ribeiro

In this work, a kernel-based surrogate for integrating Hamiltonian dynamics that is symplectic by construction and tailored to large prediction horizons is proposed. The method learns a scalar potential whose gradient enters a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Robin Herkert , Tobias Ehring , Bernard Haasdonk

Integrating heterogeneous data sources and expert knowledge is essential for overcoming data scarcity and enhancing estimation accuracy. Two main frameworks naturally arise to perform the integration of these multiple sources: sequential…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-26 Mario Figueira , David Conesa , Antonio López-Quílez , Håvard Rue

Many event sequence data exhibit mutually exciting or inhibiting patterns. Reliable detection of such temporal dependency is crucial for scientific investigation. The de facto model is the Multivariate Hawkes Process (MHP), whose impact…

Applications · Statistics 2023-05-31 Yu Chen , Fengpei Li , Anderson Schneider , Yuriy Nevmyvaka , Asohan Amarasingham , Henry Lam

Modern datasets across many disciplines increasingly consist of time-evolving, potentially infinite-dimensional random objects, such as dynamic functional data, which are naturally modeled in Hilbert spaces. In these settings,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Daniel López-Montero , Antonio Álvarez-López , Marcos Matabuena

A model for the prediction of functional time series is introduced, where observations are assumed to be continuous random functions. We model the dependence of the data with a nonstandard autoregressive structure, motivated in terms of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-03 Beatriz Bueno-Larraz , Johannes Klepsch

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are powerful tools for analysing time series data that depend on discrete underlying but unobserved states. As such, they have gained prominence across numerous empirical disciplines, in particular ecology,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-19 Jan-Ole Fischer

We propose a robust inferential procedure for assessing uncertainties of parameter estimation in high-dimensional linear models, where the dimension $p$ can grow exponentially fast with the sample size $n$. Our method combines the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-19 Tianqi Zhao , Mladen Kolar , Han Liu

The kernel herding algorithm is used to construct quadrature rules in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). While the computational efficiency of the algorithm and stability of the output quadrature formulas are advantages of this…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-07-18 Kazuma Tsuji , Ken'ichiro Tanaka

We introduce a highly-parallelizable architecture for estimating parameters of compact binary coalescence using gravitational-wave data and waveform models. Using a spherical harmonic mode decomposition, the waveform is expressed as a sum…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2015-08-06 C. Pankow , P. Brady , E. Ochsner , R. O'Shaughnessy

In this paper, we propose an extension of the Hawkes process by incorporating a kernel based on the tempered Mittag-Leffler distribution. This is the generalization of the work presented in [10]. We derive analytical results for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Neha Gupta , Aditya Maheshwari

High-dimensional multivariate spatial-temporal data arise frequently in a wide range of applications; however, there are relatively few statistical methods that can simultaneously deal with spatial, temporal and variable-wise dependencies…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-05 Elynn Y. Chen , Xin Yun , Rong Chen , Qiwei Yao